25 March 2022 | ZebPay Trade-Desk
This week the market remained a bit silent, though with a slow grind higher that feels fundamentally different from some of the sharp unsustainable rallies earlier in the month. BTC is up 2% on the week compared to ETH’s 4%, with alts generally scattered. On the high end of the week’s performers, ADA is 23% up and NEAR is up around 20%, while some tokens are still roughly unchanged. (AVAX is a surprise–it remains unchanged midway through the conference in Barcelona). This slight breakdown in intra-crypto correlations is something we have been on the lookout for, though it would probably be too early to declare the long boring Q1 of high correlations to be over. Similarly, this week has seen BTC move more or less independently of equities, and we’re not ready to declare *that* correlation over either. Overall, this week was a bit aimless, with $42k and $3k relatively uninspiring levels still firmly in the range (though, to the upper end, to be sure.) It seems as if BTC would need to break $45k to get folks excited again, while on ETH we’re looking at the $3250 for a clear breakout.
With expiration just a day away, the CME contracts are trading with essentially the highest premium we’ve seen all month, which usually suggests some newcomers to crypto. Perhaps a sharp intraday BTC rally on Wednesday can be attributed to comments from the founder of Terra, who explicitly stated that he plans to back UST with over $3B worth of bitcoin – the bulk of which has yet to be lifted from the market. A capital deployment of this size works out to roughly 70,000 tokens and would do much to counteract the recent technical malaise associated with Mt. Gox unlocks. This, combined with accelerating momentum around the ETH merge and a rapidly stabilising macro backdrop, has most digital assets trading near their local highs. In the latter part of last week, US equities responded surprisingly well to the Fed meeting, with stocks trading almost to the March highs. This likely has as much to do with Chinese equities, which came out of their free-fall too, when China’s State Council pledged to support stability.
The broader macroeconomic fear/disarray is an opportunity to gently scale into risky assets at attractive prices. The overall sentiment isn’t necessarily bearish, but more of caution. Traders are buying the dips, hence markets continue to be in a consolidatory phase. Given the macroeconomic uncertainty, this is not a bad thing, but in fact a sign of maturity, and confidence among long-term investors. While we haven’t seen any major losers this week, major alts have been pretty range-bound, indicating that the market might be consolidating.
BITCOIN continues to trade in the ‘Rising Channel’ and is in the green for the last four trading sessions forming a ‘Higher High Higher Low’ pattern. The asset can face strong resistance at its 200 Day Moving Average ($44,600). Meanwhile, the horizontal trendline stands at $45,500. Once the breakout occurs above $45,500 with good volumes then we can expect the prices to further rally up to the next resistance level which is at $50k to $53k. $39,500 will act as a strong support level for the asset.
ETH was consolidating and was trading in a ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ pattern. The asset finally gave a breakout above the pattern and rallied almost by 11% in the last five days forming the ‘Higher Top Higher Bottom’ pattern. ETH has a strong resistance zone from $3,300 to $3,400. Once it crosses the resistance then the prices can further rally up to $3,950 to $4,000. $2,900 will act as strong support for the asset.
Matic has been trading in a broad range with low volumes from $1.35 to $1.65 forming a rectangular pattern. After taking multiple support at $1.35, the asset is showing good signs of recovery and has started moving upwards. However, to witness a good rally, Matic needs to trade, sustain and close above $1.65. Once it does that, then we can expect the prices to further surge up to $1.85 to $2.
|USD ($)||17 Mar 22||24 Mar 22||Previous Week||Current Week|
|Cryptocurrency||1w – % Vol. Change (Global)|
- The Thailand Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced a ban on the use of cryptocurrencies for payments.
- The government of El Salvador has reportedly decided to postpone the issue of a Bitcoin (BTC)-backed bond due to the unfavorable market conditions fuelled by the geopolitical crisis.
- The Indian government on Monday clarified that losses incurred from one kind of virtual digital assets (VDAs) cannot be set off against the gains from any transaction involving another VDA while computing tax.
*Sources of charts:
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