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Weekly Trade Report: US Election Special

In this week's trade report, we examine USDT-INR in the context of the US elections. Also: BTC, ETH, BAT, and BNB.

06 November 2020 | ZebPay Trade-Desk

Cryptocurrency market has rallied in the US Presidential election results week. The situation is very positive and markets still trade above key resistance they breached last month especially with Bitcoin above $14,000, but the picture is not as good for alt-coins. Let’s look at what we have in store for a trade set-up.

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Chart

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $14,470 reflecting a profit of 5.8% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

As we see in the chart above, after successfully breaching $12,000 resistance there was no stopping BTC. We think this a start of Bull run BTC. Interestingly, the price has breached the bullish channel from the upside. Next resistance is near $15,300 levels.

The good news is unlike last euphoric rally in 2017 this seems to be driven by participants having a longer horizon on their minds, especially institutional participation. MACD is hitting bullish signals on all fronts, ADX is still on a bullish trend. If US elections go into uncertainty or legal fight territory, even stronger rally may ensue.

We still remain bullish on BTC after meeting our target $14,000 of last week, we think rally has further legs to run on.

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Chart

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $399 reflecting a profit of 3.39% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

As we see the chart, our bullish call of entering on dips towards $400 levels worked well last week. ETH Currently trading close to support of $396, With nearest resistance at $425 levels.

MACD is still positive with a signal line below the MACD line, RSI is around neutral levels suggesting price gain of the last weeks hasn’t pushed ETH into overbought territory. Price closed above the upper end of the range it traded last week. This should act as support in the term. Price trades above 9,21 and 200 day EMA.  Positive correlation with BTC will  help if BTC continues it’s euphoric rally in the near term.

We continue to stay bullish on ETH riding till $425 levels, yet the analysis will be negated if price falls below $380 levels convincingly.

Basic Attention Token (BAT) Technical Analysis and Chart

At the time of writing, BAT is trading around $0.18630 reflecting a profit of about 3.5% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

As we called in our last report BAT price has been stuck in the bearish as shown in the chart above. The price did try to break out of the bearish channel last month with some positive momentum but resistance of $0.23 seemed too much. 

MACD is still negative with histogram has turned negative as well, inability to break cycles of forming lower highs remains concerning in the near term.. Hence, we continue to stay bearish on BAT., with price expected to trade within the bearish channel till at least support levels of $0.17

Analysis will be negated if price breaches bearish channel convincingly. 

MATIC (MATIC) Technical Analysis and Chart

At the time of writing, MATIC  is  trading around $0.01238 reflecting a profit of about 2% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

As shown in the chart above, MATIC is bearish since mid August, with price forming lower lows and lower highs since August, after testing the resistance of $0.03 levels. 

On the technical indicator MACD is negative along with histogram. We find it interesting that $0.01 level is a very strong support for MATIC. RSI on a chart with daily or higher frequency is showing oversold signals for the first time after a very long time.

We lean on the cautiously bullish side with entry till support levels. The analysis will be negated if RSI turns neutral or price breaches support of $0.01.

Binance Coin (BNB) Technical Analysis and Chart

At the time of writing, BNB is trading around $27.2 reflecting a profit of 3.7% approximately, over a period of 24-hours.

BNB had a fairly sluggish yet positive October. It crept higher slowly before correction at month-end, continuing into November. It sold off after testing the resistance of $31.8, and it breached the support of $29.5. It now trades near the support.

On the Technical front, the picture has deteriorated but we still see some positive signs. RSI levels points to oversold levels after a correction while the MACD line is still positive, though the histogram has turned negative. Price trades just above the 200 day EMA after bouncing off from it. ADX hasn’t confirmed a bearish trend despite correction.

We remain cautiously bullish on BNB with an aim to ride the price till $29 levels or 10% from current levels. The bullish stance will be negated if price breaches below 200-day EMA convincingly.

USDT-INR Technical Analysis and Chart

At the time of writing, USDT-INR  is  trading around 76.17 reflecting a loss of about 1.08% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

USDT-INR makes up for an interesting pair as USDT is a stable coin, as we detailed in our last week’s report we look at the pair in terms of premium to USD-INR and flows 

On the technical front, some indicators have flipped like Arizona in the US election (red to green in this case). MACD gave out bullish signals , RSI neutral and ADX not confirming the trend. But as we point to above it’s important to see what’s happening with premium, the pair had with regards to USD-INR.

Premium expanded a bit due the Presidential election in the USA. We believe USDT being a stable coin is an easy way to gain exposure to USD which saw some flows at the beginning of election results. Counting President Trump out at this point without legal battles would be unwise, at the time of writing Nevada is still blue, if it turns red, the legal challenges that the President’s  team have mounted will start affecting both USD and premium in USDT, being bullish for the pair. 

With that said in the near term we tilt on the bullish side on pair with technicals turning positive, Republican control of senate looking likely, President Trump mounting legal challenges in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and a second wave of corona flaring up across Europe.

Weekly Trade Summary Sheet

Weekly Price Analysis

USD ($)28 Oct 2004 Nov 20Previous WeekCurrent Week
CloseClose% ChangeHighLowHighLow
BTC$13,271.290$14,133.710$0.065$13,837.700$12,717.090$14,218.770$12,980.060
ETH$388.650$402.140$0.035$420.140$381.150$407.670$371.310
BAT$0.195$0.185-$0.052$0.226$0.191$0.200$0.175
XRP$0.246$0.238-$0.033$0.263$0.244$0.247$0.229
BNB$30.360$26.930-$0.113$32.350$29.760$30.420$25.900
MATIC$0.015$0.012-$0.188$0.018$0.015$0.015$0.012

Weekly Volume Analysis

Cryptocurrency1w – % Vol. Change (Global)
BitCoin (BTC)4.48%
Ethereum (ETH)-3.57%
Basic Attention Token (BAT)-13.31%
Ripple (XRP)-5.32%
Binance Coin (BNB)-8.47%
MATIC (MATIC)-9.99%

Weekly Price Pointers

Resistance 2$15,300$472$0.2060$0.2530$33.00$0.020
Resistance 1$14,630$446$0.1950$0.2450$31.50$0.017
USDBTCETHBATXRPBNBMATIC
Support 1$14,350$382$0.1760$0.2280$26.90$0.012
Support 2$14,000$361$0.1550$0.2190$25.30$0.010

Market Updates

  1. The Ethereum community has been getting prepared ahead of the launch of ETH 2.0, with a record number of wallets now holding at least 32 ETH.
  2. Switcheo welcomes our newest partner, DeFiance Capital following completion of strategic raise led by the crypto investment firm.
  3. Square Inc said Friday it would give out a grant to a designer seeking to simplify cryptocurrency wallets and make them more accessible to less technology-savvy users.
  4. Pro-Bitcoin candidate wins Wyoming senate seat
  5. Bitcoiner Elected to US Senate: Cynthia Lummis Sees ‘Great Promise’ in Bitcoin
  6. Seven years after the online market shuttered, researchers say as much as 444,000 Bitcoin remain unaccounted for.

*Sources of charts: https://cryptowat.ch, https://pro.zebpay.com/trade/USDT-INR

Disclaimer : This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum etc.are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.

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