23 October 2020 | ZebPay Trade-Desk
Cryptocurrency markets have continued a bull run last week with Bitcoin causing FOMO amongst crypto investors. The situation has turned positive and markets have breached key resistance especially with Bitcoin above $12,000, the picture is not as good for alt-coins. Let’s look at what we have in store for a trade set-up.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Chart
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $12,853 reflecting a profit of 3.75% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
As we see in the chart above, Bitcoin has successfully breached the long awaited resistance of $12,000 last week and broke out of the range bound trading shown last month. This, we think, is a good trigger for a euphoric rally at this point. Price sits comfortably within the bullish channel and next resistance appears at $14,000 both as shown in chart above, which may prove to be too weak if Euphoria ensues.
Speaking of technical indicators, it’s a green zone which is getting greener, MACD related line and histogram both signalling extreme bullishishness, ADX has is at the levels that confirms trends (one doesn’t need to look at ADX to confirm trend at this point though).
USDT/ INR losing premium creates further tailwind for BTC flows in Indian subcontinent, speaking of flows, institutional flow into assets got stronger in the last two weeks with Stone Ridge allocating more than $100 million to BTC, add CME’s confirmation about institutional longs at record in it’s BTC futures and Paypal decision to open up to cryptos to flow positive factors.
Lastly a weakening USD adds icing on the cake for the start of bull run for BTC. We remain bullish on BTC with adding longs on the dips like we have been for the last two weeks.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Chart
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $413.1 reflecting a profit of 8.13% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
As we see in the chart above, Ethereum finally followed the euphoric BTC, breaking out of resistance of $394, looking to build on rally to test the resistance around $450, trading above both short and long term trading averages.
MACD has turned positive with a bullish crossover, price has formed higher lows even when it was testing the resistance, FOMO can be a driver of short term gains with people who missed out on a huge BTC rally last week may look to capitalize on possible ETH rally after resistance broke.
We stay bullish on ETH, yet the analysis will be negated if price falls below $394 convincingly.
Basic Attention Token (BAT) Technical Analysis and Chart
At the time of writing, BAT is trading around $0.22360 reflecting a profit of about 5.5% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
As our analysis pointed last week BAT did bounce from the support level of $0.2, taking a break from the bearish spell it faced since September. MACD histogram has turned positive with a bullish crossover, price is above previous local high looking to break the pattern of lower highs we have observed since September. Price has clearly moved out of bearish channel as shown in the figure.
We are cautiously optimistic, with entering a long position as price moves further above the bearish channel to ride along till the next resistance of $0.25. Analysis will be negated if prices again fails within bearish channel convincingly
Ripple (XRP) Technical Analysis and Chart
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $0.2615 reflecting a proit of about 4.08% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
As shown in the chart above, the technical picture looks positive for XRP with price forming higher lows since the beginning of October. The price has moved above critical moving averages. With price breaking out the resistance of $0.26 and MACD turning positive technical bias remains positive
We have a bullish view on XRP with price looking to trade near $0.3 next. Analysis will be negated if price falls below the upward trend line convincingly.
Compound (COMP) Technical Analysis and Chart
At the time of writing, COMP is trading around $103.89 reflecting a profit of about 5.12% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
COMP has continued on a bearish trend since September, it broke the support of $120 last week, which is now acting as a resistance in the near term. It did test support at $92.7 levels recently and successfully bounced off.
The cause of worry remains MACD, which is deeply negative and below the signal line with COMP stuck in the bearish channel as seen above. The price has moved slightly outside the bearish channel from above, but remains too close to the upper channel.
We are still tilted to the bearish side on the COMP. The Analysis will be negated if price breaks the bearish channel convincingly or breaks the resistance of $120.
USDT-INR Technical Analysis and Chart
At the time of writing, USDT-INR is trading around 75.17 reflecting a gain of about 0.29% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
USDT-INR makes up for an interesting pair as USDT is a stable coin, pair is struck in a bearish channel as seen above, during the same time window, USD-INR pair was fairly stable, within range of 73 to 73.5. This means that USDT-INR has been losing the premium to USD-INR, we had seen before September. Hence, we believe that the bearish channel we see above largely due the shrinkage in the premium.
On the technical front, as expected the indicators are giving out bearish signals with MACD negative, RSI neutral and ADX confirming the bearish trend. But as we point to above it’s important to see what’s happening with premium, the pair had with regards to USD-INR.
The premium shrinkage can be attributed to flows and fundamentals, with regards to flow as the BTC and ETH rally wrt to USDT, some flow of USDT moves towards these coins (rally chasing) causing the premium to go down. On the fundamental side we believe USDT being a stable coin is an easy way to gain exposure to USD, so, if markets expect USD to underperform in the medium term that would depress the premium as well.
With that said, both flow and fundamentals are staggered against the pair in near term. BTC is looking at a euphoric rally, and the dollar is expected to weaken further with accommodating bias of US FED, Average inflation targeting and possibility that U.S. Senate, House and President’s office agrees on further stimulus be it before or after Nov. elections
Hence, in the near term we are tilted to the bearish side on the pair with risk to the analysis being events causing halt in BTC rally or causing strong flows into dollar (Contested elections, Senate and President of different parties in U.S. and or any other risk-off even ex. resurgence of coronavirus)
Weekly Trade Summary Sheet
Weekly Price Analysis
|USD ($)||14 Oct 20||21 Oct 20||Previous Week||Current Week|
Weekly Volume Analysis
|Cryptocurrency||1w – % Vol. Change (Global)|
|Basic Attention Token (BAT)||62.01%|
Weekly Price Pointers
- Despite $4B worth of BTC and ETH being locked in DeFi over the past five months, the two top coins still account for less than half of the sector’s TVL.
- UK Bans Sale of Crypto Derivatives to Retail Investors from January 2021.
- Nigeria Protest Group Asks for Bitcoin Donations After Regulators Block Bank Account
- Only five crypto exchanges hold over 10% of existing Bitcoin supply.
- Breitling Goes Live With Ethereum-Based System to Put All New Watches on the Blockchain.
- Bitcoin price metric suggests $15K surge after US elections — report.
- Demand for Ethereum-based stablecoins exploded during the third-quarter DeFi bubble, with DAI’s supply growing by more than 600% and USDC expanding 200%.
- Almost half a billion USDT minted in the past 36 hours as Bitcoin rallies.
Disclaimer : This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum etc are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.