Amid risk aversion, the crypto market traded mixed in the early hours of Friday. Bitcoin and Ethereum cooled on inflation concerns. US Department of Commerce report confirming that the world’s largest economy is in recession, according to the traditional definition of back-to-back Quarters of negative GDP hit sentiment on Wall Street. Key crypto tokens traded mixed on Friday. Ethereum and Bitcoin fell slightly, while XRP was up 9 per cent. Polkadot is up by more than 4%, followed by a 2% gain in Polygon and Solana. The global crypto market cap traded marginally higher to $942.84 billion and increased by less than one per cent over the past 24 hours. However, overall transaction volume fell by 16% to around $69.93 billion.
Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled into its narrow trading range at the Wall Street open on Sept. 29 as official data plunged the US economy into recession. BTC/USD saw a quiet spell overnight for the largest crypto, hitting intraday highs above $19,600 the day before. These 6% gains were a welcome relief after posting losses earlier in the week. But with no clear direction, market participants were still unsure how Bitcoin would handle the September monthly close. Material indicators referenced data from the order book that suggested $18,000 in the fall fresh weakness could support the range market. The S&P 500 fell for six consecutive days to hit a new yearly low on September 27, but Bitcoin (BTC) maintained its outperformance and stayed well above it. This could be a positive sign as markets that show strength on the way down are the ones that do best in the event of a rebound.
As the dust settles on the Ethereum network’s highly anticipated Proof-of-Stake (PoS) transition, people are discussing its implementation and its potential for the Future. The importance of the new Ethereum network is emphasised since it is better for the environment and reduces the carbon footprint. Ethereum is a better settlement layer and a friendlier platform for layer 2 solutions. This is a very important development for layer 2 products, which could scale, provide computational compression and other improvements that their technology can provide. Institutions will start accumulating Ethereum after it moves to proof-of-stake and meets environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns. The figure of $3000 in Ether (ETH) prices by the end of the year has been announced and investors see this as a possibility, especially now that the network is more respectful of the environment and big banks use it. Right now, ETH is trading up 3.8% to $1,336 in the last 24 hours, so it has a long way to go in the next three months.
On the monthly outlook, US equity markets rebounded sharply on September 28 after the Bank of England announced a bond purchase program and US Treasury yields fell from their multi-year levels high. While this was happening, there was heavy buying in Bitcoin, but BTC failed to clear its overall resistance. The crypto pair topped the dismal figure from the US, with second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimated at -0.6%. This meant, despite protests from the White House, the US met the standard criteria for a recession: two straight quarters of negative growth. The event follows the Bank of England’s abrupt intervention in the UK bond market, the return to quantitative easing (QE). One glimmer of hope for crypto traders is that October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin. With the exception of 2014 and 2018, Bitcoin according to data has had a positive close in October every year since 2013.
Technical Outlook:
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin after making the monthly high of $22,799 resisted at its 200-week moving average and witnessed a correction. The prices dropped to $18,125. Post this move the asset has been trading sideways in a range from $18,500 to $20,500 over the past two weeks. Technically on a weekly time frame, BTC is consolidating and trying to take support at the key level of $17,750 (78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level). If it holds and sustains above the support then we may expect the bulls to resume the up-move. However, to witness a rally it needs to break and close above the resistance level of $22,500 whereas a break below $17,600 (previous bottom) will lead to further downfall.
ETH:
ETH has been consolidating and trading below its 20-day moving average in a range from $1,250 to $1,400 over the past two weeks. Technically on a daily time frame, the asset is trying to take support at the upsloping trendline and the horizontal trendline at $1,275. If the prices break and close above $1,500 then we can expect it to further rally up to $1,750 and $2,000 levels whereas a break below $1,250 will lead to further downfall.
MATIC:
Matic, after witnessing a massive rally from $0.31 to $1.05 faced multiple resistance around $0.95 to $1 and corrected almost by 35% and made the monthly low of $0.6901. Currently, on a daily time frame, Matic is consolidating in a range from $0.7 to $0.8 with low volumes. Breakout on either side of the range with good volumes will further decide the trend for the asset.
Monthly Snapshot:
| August | September | Previous Month | Current Month | ||||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $20,050 | $19,573 | -2.38% | $25,136 | $19,601 | $22,674 | $18,290 |
| ETH | $1,154 | $1,336 | 15.77% | $2,023 | $1,428 | $1,785 | $1,229 |
| MATIC | $0.83 | $0.76 | -8.21% | $1.05 | $0.76 | $0.94 | $0.69 |
| crypto | 1m – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | 28.27% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | -5.29% |
| Polygon (MATIC) | -13.48% |
| Resistance 2 | $22,500 | $1,750 | $1.05 | $0.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $20,500 | $1,450 | $0.835 | $0.45 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | Matic | BAT |
| Support 1 | $17,500 | $1,250 | $0.70 | $0.33 |
| Support 2 | $15,000 | $1,000 | $0.63 | $0.25 |
Market Updates:
- The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has frozen Rs 21.14 crore of online forex trading app OctaFX and related entities in various bank accounts after carrying out searches at their premises over allegations that the private firm’s activity was in contravention of Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA).
- Crypto exchange Bittrex, custodian BitGo, and six other firms have joined the Crypto Market Integrity Coalition, a self-regulatory organization aiming to combat crypto market manipulation.
- Crypto exchange Binance said customers can now join a mining pool for ETHW, the forked version of Ethereum that retains the blockchain’s original proof-of-work underpinnings.
Disclaimer: This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness, or reliability of the information, opinions, or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptos viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, etc are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by the Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.
