Major crypto assets traded in “red” early on January 6th as the global crypto market cap declined 0.32 per cent to $817.65 billion. The total crypto market volume over the last 24 hours increased 22.94 per cent to $27.22 billion. The total volume in Defi is currently $1.90 billion, which is seven per cent of the total crypto market 24-hour volume. The volume of all stablecoins is now at $26.09 billion, which is 95.87 per cent of the total crypto market 24-hour volume. Bitcoin was quietly celebrating its 14th birthday as it hovered around $16,864, a 0.74% jump from the previous day. Solana continued its mega rally, surging over 17% on the positive sentiment surrounding the coin.
BTC traders are desperate for new BTC price volatility, but opinions differ as to when it will arrive. BTC/USD is currently experiencing some of the least volatile conditions in its history. Since the FTX crisis, Bitcoin has settled in a historically tight trading range that won’t budge. Despite macro triggers, low-volume holiday trading and an annual candle close, BTC price action has held steady in a zone around $17,000. This is the least volatile period in the history of the Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL), and other data also shows that such sideways behaviour is extremely rare. Two months after FTX, traders, and analysts are hotly debating when the BTC/USD breakout will occur and in which direction it will go. The 30-day standard deviation annualized volatility of Bitcoin is now at a low, only seen a few times in the past five years. Bollinger Bands are a classic indicator of volatility that has been used since the 1980s. Years in action is the standard deviation for determining the upper and lower bounds of price movement within a defined period. Several use cases emerge, including the ability to assess price movement as “volatile” or “non-volatile”, and associated entry and exit points. The two bands are currently “tight” around the central moving average in BTC/USD as data shows, suggesting that volatility should kick in now.
Safer Yield, meanwhile, appeared to welcome Ether, with solid support levels providing much-needed solace to bulls in the event of another market downturn. ETH/USD is trading at $1,250 for the first time since December 16 at the time of writing, and its daily candle of January 4 has sealed gains of 3% so far. The Ethereum network eclipsed Bitcoin in terms of total transaction volume last year, although the crypto king managed to retain the crown when it comes to online trading search interest. According to data from Nasdaq and Ycharts shared on Reddit on January 2nd, there were 338% more Ether transactions in 2022 (408 .5 million) from Bitcoin roughly (93.1 million). However, transaction volumes on the Bitcoin network have been more stable and regular than on Ethereum, which exhibited greater volatility in transaction volumes. This was due to peaks in demand at certain times, for example, NFT launches and other gas-guzzling events such as XEN minting. However, Ethereum could lead in terms of transactions and activity, Bitcoin remains the most searched crypto on the internet. The second and third positions were taken by meme coins Doge and Shiba Inu followed by Ethereum at 4th.
On the macro front, The financial drain that the big Gemini hole could place on DCG is significant as they could be forced to sell sizable positions in GBTC and ETHE along with other positions in trusts held by sister company Grayscale. The DCG and Gemini drama is taking place at a time when market sentiment is low. Despite indications that investors are planning to get involved in crypto in 2023, most market participants are not optimistic and hesitant to get involved with risky assets. The index is currently at 26 on a 100-point scale, which corresponds to December. Some analysts believe the January 12th US CPI Report shows an increase in inflation. When this happens, the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates, which has historically caused crypto market caps to fall.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin:
BTC continues to trade sideways in a narrow range below $17k. After making the low of $15,476, the asset showed signs of recovery and went up to $18,387. However, the prices failed to sustain and give a daily close above the resistance of $18k. BTC made a ‘Gravestone Doji’ candle at $18k and witnessed some profit booking. Post this move, the asset has been trading in a narrow range from $16,250 to $17,000. Breakouts above $18k or below $15k will further decide the trend for the asset.
ETH:
ETH too is trading sideways in a narrow range from $1,150 to $1,250 forming a series of small candles with low volumes. The asset has very strong resistance at $1,400. Once the prices give a breakout above the resistance with good volumes then we can expect a rally up to $1,750 whereas $1,100 and $1,000 will act as a strong support zone for ETH. A break below the support will lead to further downfall.
BNB:
BNB after taking multiple supports at $255 went up to $317.8. Post this move, the asset started trading in a ‘Descending Channel’ pattern. Last week, BNB gave a breakout below the pattern and broke the long-held support of $255 and made the low of $220. Post this move, the asset is consolidating between $255 and $235. To witness a rally, BNB needs to close and sustain above the key level of $255.
Weekly Snapshot
| USD ($) | 29 Dec 22 | 05 Jan 23 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $16,642 | $16,836 | 1.17% | $16,959 | $16,497 | $16,965 | $16,408 |
| ETH | $1,202 | $1,250 | 4.06% | $1,230 | $1,185 | $1,259 | $1,187 |
| BNB | $246.48 | $256.42 | 4.03% | $248.27 | $241.70 | $260.52 | $241.69 |
| crypto | 1w – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | -1.37% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | -3.09% |
| Binance Coin (BNB) | 10.21% |
| Resistance 2 | $22,500 | $1,750 | $1.20 | $300 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $18,000 | $1,400 | $1.05 | $255 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | Matic | BNB |
| Support 1 | $15,500 | $1,000 | $0.75 | $215 |
| Support 2 | $12,000 | $881 | $0.62 | $185 |
Market Updates
- The developer of a Mutant Ape Yacht Club knock-off collection — Mutant Ape Planet — has been arrested in New York and charged with defrauding investors of $2.9 million in a “rug pull scheme.”
- Liquid staking protocol Lido Finance appears to have benefited most from the Ethereum merge in September, with its total value locked (TVL) now sitting at the top position among other decentralized finance (Defi) protocols.
- The Bank of France’s governor has called for more stringent licensing requirements for crypto companies in France, citing the current turmoil in the crypto markets.
- 3AC founders Zhu Su and Kyle Davies have been ordered to provide all documents in their possession or control, regardless of whether the information is held by them directly or is in control of a third party.
