The Crypto market was back in red early Friday ahead of the US jobs data release. Macro fears are quite evident in Crypto at this point. Bitcoin after breaking $20,000 is back above key psychological levels. Ethereum also had levels of $1350 while other altcoins fell. With the exception of Tether, Tron and Uniswap, which are pegged to the US dollar, all other crypto tokens traded on Friday are at the bottom. BNB fell 4% followed by a 3% decline in Shiba Inu. Dogecoin, Solana and Bitcoin each lost 2%. The global crypto market cap traded at $958.92 billion, falling more than 1% in the last 24 hours. However, total transaction volume fell by more than 7% to $55.38856 billion.
Bitcoin was range bound mostly during the whole week when it opened on Oct. 6 and traders were already plotting a “violent” breakout. BTC/USD rose and fell a few hundred dollars during the day. The $20,000 level provided a focus for the pair, moving in lockstep with US stocks consolidating and the dollar meandering strength. With no spot catalyst in sight for the near-term, on-chain analytics resource Whalemap turned to large-scale buy and sell points to outline potential support and resistance. On the downside, $19,174 marked the point of whale buybacks, suggesting their continued strength. Meanwhile, a resistance cloud seems to be appearing at $21,500. In the derivatives markets, traders have been constantly adding dry powder, which could fuel a “violent” end to the status quo. As the asset consolidates around $20,000, BTC-denominated futures show that interest is just below the all-time high at 604,000 BTC. The all-time high of open interest was primarily backed by stablecoins, marking a notable change from the strong bullish volatility seen in April 2021 when BTC/USD hit $58,000.
Trader sentiment regarding Ether (ETH) has improved significantly as the price is up 7.5% from October 2nd to October 6th, but the price tracing the $1350 level was not convincing enough to trigger bullish activity from derivatives traders. Ether’s price is still below the $2,000 level last seen on August 14, and the network’s average transaction fee hovered near $2 after the Merge. The most significant upgrade to the Ethereum chain occurred on September 15th, the move from energy-intensive mining technology to a suite of validators required to deposit 32 ETH stakes. The Merge is required to implement future sharding or parallel processing features and was not developed at the current stage to solve scalability problems. Consequently, according to DappRadar, the Ethereum network does not have any of the top 5 decentralized user applications. For this reason, analyzing derivatives data is valuable in understanding how confident investors are that Ether will sustain the rally towards $1,500 or more. Ether bulls may struggle to gain ground as macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties dictate the trend. However, a surprise 10% surge to $1,500 would surprise the bears and trigger sell-offs in short positions.
On the macro side, The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tumbled from highs during the week, continued to show relative weakness, which helped lift sentiment among risk assets. It is being said that the S&P 500 reading of 3,300 would represent “fair value”. The index was up about 2.5% for the week, ending the Oct. 5 trading session at 3,783. There won’t be a major buy signal until the Fed reverses or the market fails to reach fair value. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool estimates, in the month of November, It’s more likely that the 75 basis point rise coincides with the previous two.
Technical Outlook:
BITCOIN:
BITCOIN gained good momentum early this week as the prices crossed the psychological level of $20k and made the weekly high of $20,475. However, the bulls failed to break the resistance of $20,750 and are witnessing some profit booking. Technically, on a daily time frame, the asset continues to trade sideways in a range from $18,500 to $20,500. BTC has a strong support zone from $18,000 to $17,500 ($17,622 Previous Bottom) whereas $20,750 and $22,500 are acting as strong resistance levels. Breakouts on either side of these levels with good volumes will further decide the trend for the asset. Flat Moving Averages and RSI around 50 indicates neutral stance for the asset.
ETH:
ETH has been consolidating and trading below its 20 day moving average in a range from $1,250 to $1,400 over the past two weeks. Technically on a daily time frame, the asset is trying to take support at the upsloping trendline and the horizontal trendline at $1,275. If the prices break and close above $1,500 then we can expect it to further rally upto $1,750 and $2,000 levels whereas a break below $1,250 will lead to further downfall.
BNB:
BNB prices rallied almost by 15% making the weekly high of $298.2. The asset has a strong resistance at $300 (Horizontal Trendline). If it breaks and closes above the resistance then it can further rally up to $335. $280 and $255 will act as strong support for the asset.
Weekly Snapshot:
| USD ($) | 29 Sep 22 | 06 Oct 22 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $19,573 | $19,955 | 1.95% | $20,338 | $18,553 | $20,380 | $18,971 |
| ETH | $1,336 | $1,352 | 1.20% | $1,397 | $1,268 | $1,380 | $1,271 |
| BNB | $283.79 | $286.63 | 1.00% | $286.07 | $266.98 | $297.99 | $278.36 |
| crypto | 1w – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | -23.65% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | -35.85% |
| Binance Coin (BNB) | -7.35% |
| Resistance 2 | $32,500 | $2,400 | $1.20 | $335 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $28,500 | $2,000 | $1.00 | $300 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | BNB | BNB |
| Support 1 | $23,000 | $1,700 | $0.75 | $280 |
| Support 2 | $20,000 | $1,300 | $0.63 | $255 |
Market Updates:
- Transit Swap, a multichain decentralized exchange aggregator, lost roughly $21 million after a hacker exploited an internal bug on a swap contract. Following the revelation, Transit Swap issued an apology to users in an effort to track down and recover the stolen funds.
- Two Sigma Securities, a quantitative hedge fund with approximately $60 billion in assets under management, will provide data to the popular blockchain information network Chainlink, according to a press release.
- The AIFC Financial Services Authority in Kazakhstan granted Binance a permanent licence to manage a digital asset platform and provide custody services in the country.
- Kim Kardashian has agreed to pay $1.26 million to settle Securities and Exchange Commission charges that she promoted crypto on Instagram without disclosing she’d been paid $250,000 to do so.
Disclaimer: This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness, or reliability of the information, opinions, or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptos viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, etc are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by the Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.
