The Crypto market was majorly trading mixed on Friday, with the global crypto market cap falling by a marginal percentage of 0.31% over the past 24 hours to $1.01 Trillion. In addition, the total trading volume decreased by more than 22% to $79.78 billion. BTC has held above $20,000 for the past nine days, but deteriorating traditional market conditions are making traders doubt whether the support will hold. Except for a few altcoins and stablecoins, most crypto tokens are being traded in a range. The global economy was gloomy as the US announced a small drop in weekly job claims just hours after the Bank of England hiked interest rates by 75 basis points, in line with recent increases from the Federal Reserve. After a blistering rally, Dogecoin fell 10% and Shiba Inu 3%. While Polygon was up 14% and BNB was up 4%.
Bitcoin’s price staged a brief rally today, and a market-wide rally in crypto prices suggests that Bitcoin, Dogecoin and Ether could indicate starting November with gains. The announcement by the US Federal Reserve on November 2nd that it would raise the interest rate by 0.75 basis points initially had a positive impact on the stock and crypto markets. BTC briefly hit a daily high of $20,800 before returning to the $20,500 area. As the current price fluctuates, BTC remains above the psychologically important $20,000 level. Bitcoin bulls are already preparing for a post-FOMC gain and price surge, with $640 million worth of BTC options expiring this November 4th. Bitcoin’s realized price is currently centred between $17,000 and $22,000 indicating a strong holder base. In addition to the realized price distribution, 60% of all Bitcoin long-term holders are making profits. Some investors might attribute Bitcoin’s current low volatility to a steady consolidation within the $20,000 range and a lack of willingness from sellers to interpret the current stock-driven headwinds as a sign that the price has bottomed.
Ethereum was once the second largest energy-consuming crypto, which makes sense as it is the second largest crypto. The move to PoS resulted in a 99.95% reduction in the crypto’s overall carbon footprint. The crypto is gradually recovering, recording a 12% price pump to trade at over $1,500, the highest since its network’s upgrade. Last week on October 29th, another rally of 10.3% to $1,650 occurred, sparking another $270 million in short seller liquidations in ETH futures contracts. A total of $840 million in leveraged short positions were liquidated in three days, representing over 9% of total open interest in ETH futures. At present sentiment is neutral based on the ETH futures and options markets. Therefore, traders are likely to be cautious, especially when the whales and arbitrage tables have remained on the sidelines during such an impressive rally.
Until there is confirmation of the strength of the $1500 price level which is due to a professional trader’s appetite for leveraged long positions, investors should not be too quick to conclude that Ether’s rally is sustainable.
On the macro side of things, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 3%, the largest single hike since 1989. Risks of a prolonged recession also increased as the Monetary Policy Committee struggled to contain the pressure of inflation. The United Kingdom’s Monetary Authority said its latest growth and inflation forecasts present a “very challenging” outlook for the economy. The committee’s statement went on to say that “high energy prices and tightening financial conditions are weighing on spending” and weighing on employment data. The US Federal Reserve also hiked interest rates on November 2, the fourth straight hike that took interest rates to their highest levels since January 2008. Confirmation of a dovish stance by central banks may partially explain why Bitcoin failed to break the $21,000 resistance on Oct. 29 and has since declined 4.5%.
Technical Outlook:
BITCOIN:
BITCOIN was trading in a range from $18,000 to $20,550 for a few weeks. The asset finally gave a breakout above the range and made a high of $21,020. However, the bulls are struggling to gain momentum as the asset is facing rejections at higher levels and has failed to give closing above $21k. Currently, BTC is consolidating above the 50-Day Moving Average. Once BTC sustains above $20,550 it can go further up to $22,500 whereas $19,750 (50-Day Moving Average) and $17,500 will act as strong support for the asset. $22,500 – $22,750 will be the major hurdle for the bulls.
ETH:
ETH was consolidating and trading in a range from $1,200 to $1,400. The asset gave a breakout above the range and rallied almost by 19% making a high of $1,666. Post this move, ETH is consolidating between $1,500 to $1,625. The downsloping Trendline, the Horizontal Trendline at $1,750 and the 50 Day Moving Average will act as strong resistance and to further rally it needs to break and close above these levels whereas $1,400 and $1,200 will act as strong support for ETH.
BNB:
BNB was consolidating and trading in a range from $255 to $300. The asset made a ‘Hammer’ candle at the support and finally gave a breakout above the range. The prices rallied almost by 32% making the weekly high of $341. BNB is trying to break the long-held resistance at $337-$340. If it closes and sustains above these levels then it can further surge up to $380-$400 levels. $300 will act as a strong support for the asset.
Weekly Snapshot:
| USD ($) | 27 Oct 22 | 03 Nov 22 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $20,285 | $20,210 | -0.37% | $20,938 | $18,771 | $20,988 | $20,086 |
| ETH | $1,514 | $1,532 | 1.13% | $1,585 | $1,261 | $1,652 | $1,494 |
| MATIC | $0.94 | $0.95 | 0.77% | $0.96 | $0.78 | $0.98 | $0.84 |
| crypto | 1w – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | 32.09% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 25.76% |
| Polygon (MATIC) | -3.75% |
| Resistance 2 | $28,500 | $2,000 | $1.50 | $380 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $22,500 | $1,750 | $1.20 | $337 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | Matic | BNB |
| Support 1 | $17,500 | $1,400 | $1 | $300 |
| Support 2 | $15,000 | $1,250 | $0.75 | $215 |
Market Updates:
- The Union Bank of the Philippines, or simply UnionBank — one of the largest universal banks in the Philippines — has launched a pilot program for Bitcoin and Ether custody and trading services for select retail customers, the firm said in a joint announcement on Nov. 2.
- Nikolai Mushegian, the co-founder of the crypto lending platform MakerDAO and the decentralized Dai stablecoin, died in Puerto Rico last week.
- CEO of Binance Changpeng “CZ” Zhao appears to have softened his stance on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), arguing at a conference that I don’t think CBDCs pose a threat to your business or the crypto industry.
- Skyward Finance, an initial decentralised exchange (DEX) offering (IDO) which permits fair token distribution for projects on the Near protocol, has reportedly faced exploitations worth 1.1 million Near Protocol tokens, which was estimated at $3 Mn.
Disclaimer: This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness, or reliability of the information, opinions, or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptos viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, etc are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by the Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.
