In the midst of one of Bitcoin’s sharpest pullbacks of the year, a renewed sense of optimism is beginning to take shape. Standard Chartered believes that the recent sell off, which has seen Bitcoin correct by around 30% from its highs, may now be reaching a point of completion and could set the stage for a recovery rally before the year ends. Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research, Standard Chartered, has suggested that the downturn is more of a natural cycle correction rather than the start of a sustained bearish phase, based on how Bitcoin has performed over the last 2 years.
Signal Indicate a Possible Market Turning Point
On November 18, 2025, through a client note, Kendrick stated that the latest decline in Bitcoin fits into a recurring pattern seen during the current market cycle. According to Kendrick’s note, he pointed out that several valuation and sentiment measures have dropped back to levels normally observed when the market is close to forming a bottom.
From what is understood, one of the clearest examples is Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) modified net asset value ratio, which compares the market value of the company with the up-to-date value of the Bitcoin it holds. Reportedly, the figure has returned to around 1.0, suggesting that the market is now valuing the firm in line with its underlying assets, a condition often associated with the final stages of a sell-off.
Moreover, Kendrick specified that numerous other indicators have fallen to unusually low readings, signalling that sellers may have already exhausted their positions. From what is understood, this shift has taken place even as overall activity in the crypto market surged, with daily trading volumes more than doubling and close to $335 million in Bitcoin derivatives liquidated in a single day. Despite the volatile presence, Kendrick maintains that his central expectation remains a recovery heading into the end of the year.
Conclusion
As the broader crypto market navigates heightened volatility, the current environment provides a meaningful reminder of how sentiment can shift rapidly during maturing market cycles. The data presented reinforces the importance of looking beyond immediate price swings and focusing on structural trends that continue to unfold beneath the surface. Whether the projected rebound materializes or not, the coming weeks are expected to play a key role in shaping investor confidence and dictating Bitcoin’s momentum moving into the new year.
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FAQs
Why does Standard Chartered believe Bitcoin could rally soon?
The bank notes that the recent 30% sell-off may be ending and several market indicators have returned to levels typically seen near market bottoms, signaling potential for a recovery.
What does Geoffrey Kendrick say about the recent Bitcoin decline?
Kendrick views it as a normal cycle correction rather than the start of a prolonged bearish phase, based on patterns observed over the past two years.
What is Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) modified net asset value (mNAV) and why is it important?
mNAV compares the company’s market value with the real-time value of its Bitcoin holdings. A value near 1.0 suggests the market is valuing the company in line with its assets, often seen at market lows.
How did trading activity behave during this sell-off?
Daily trading volumes more than doubled, and about $335 million in Bitcoin derivatives were liquidated in one day, indicating both high activity and possible seller exhaustion.
Does this mean Bitcoin’s rebound is guaranteed?
No. While the indicators suggest a potential recovery, volatility remains high, and the coming weeks will play a key role in determining market momentum.
