As the crypto market navigates late 2025 with a mixed sentiment and sustained macro uncertainty, focus is gradually shifting to long-term outlooks. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, remains optimistic about 2026, calling the year an expected “up year” for Bitcoin and the greater digital asset market.
His renewed confidence is supported by deep structural shifts underway in institutional adoption, market regulation, and real-world blockchain applications-factors he believes will shape a more sustained, stable growth cycle.
A New Market Phase: Why Hougan Favors 2026
In recent interviews, Hougan signaled that 2026 is positioned to be a beneficiary of forces more important than the classic four-year crypto cycle. In fact, he has stated that “the four-year cycle is dead.”
This view follows from several key shifts:
- The effect that Bitcoin halvings have is diminishing over time.
- ETFs, along with other mainstream financial products, have accelerated institutional access.
- Interest rate cycles and regulatory clarity are macro factors that come to the fore, playing a much bigger role than in previous eras.
Rather than extreme boom-and-bust moves pegged to halving cycles, Hougan predicts a “sustained steady boom” for digital assets, with 2026 well positioned to deliver meaningful gains.
Structural Drivers Setting Up the Next Bull Phase
He attributed his confidence in a strong 2026 to key structural shifts within the crypto market. Among these, he highlighted institutional inflows, improving regulatory clarity, the rapid rise of stablecoins, expanding tokenization efforts, and renewed activity across major DeFi protocols as core indicators of long-term strength.
He has also repeatedly pointed to accelerating growth for stablecoins, projecting that the sector’s assets under management could top $1 trillion by 2026, driven by payments, remittances, and global dollar demand.
Market Sentiment: A Tale of Two Retail Segments
Hougan noted a clear divide in retail sentiment. Crypto-native retail remains cautious after the fallout from events like FTX and weak altcoin performance through 2024–2025. In contrast, traditional retail investors, entering through spot ETFs and advisory channels, continue to increase their exposure.
According to Hougan, this shift is reshaping the investor base and contributing to a more stable, slow-building market environment heading into 2026.
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FAQs
1. Why does Matt Hougan expect 2026 to be an “up year” for crypto?
Because structural factors like institutional inflows, regulation, stablecoins, and tokenization are replacing old cycle-driven patterns, setting up long-term strength.
2. What key trends will shape the crypto market in 2026?
Stablecoin growth, tokenization of real-world assets, maturing DeFi ecosystems, and expanding regulatory clarity.
3. Is retail investor sentiment improving?
Traditional-finance retail investors entering through ETFs show strong interest, even as crypto-native retail remains cautious.
