08 April 2022 | ZebPay Trade-Desk
It’s been one week into April and the market continues to tread cautiously. BTC continues to remain choppy, swinging between $44k and $48k in April and we have yet to significantly break in either direction, with the 128 days MA of $43.6k and 200 days MA of $48.3k remaining unbroken. We saw BTC move lower to test the $45k level earlier today, but we also believe that market participants will be wary of being overly bearish on BTC, knowing that the Luna Foundation Guard could resume its BTC buying any day. Zooming out, BTC is down 4% over the past week as compared to ETH which is only down 0.4%. Meanwhile, we can see strong performance from alts such as SOL, DOGE, and NEAR which are up 13%, 14%, and 18% respectively. Typically, if altcoins start consistently outperforming BTC for a few weeks, it could precede a bull market.
Continuing to responsibly stack dips would be the play here, especially given that the broader macro backdrop remains constructive in our view.
1) The dollar’s value is hurting under the weight of inflation.
2) Countries and corporations continue to adopt crypto every day. Just yesterday, MicroStrategy announced that it has acquired another 4,197 BTC. At current valuations, it is now holding 5.8bn of BTC while the company’s market cap is 5.5bn.
3) The March FOMC could have potentially been a very damaging inflection point for risk assets, but crypto still managed to rally, despite a hawkish projection from the Fed. Powell’s comments that the US economy was strong enough to withstand monetary tightening policies no doubt helped to quell risk-off sentiment as well.
4) WW3 fears seem to have been pulled back from March and unless we see a severe escalation of the Russia-Ukraine situation, we should remain supported.
Lastly, Bitcoin 2022 will kick off today, 6th April. Some interesting rumours that we’ve been hearing include a potential update on the BTC bond from El Salvador, Jack Dorsey’s plans for a fiat-BTC DEX, and even possibly Apple announcing support for BTC payments. Chris Zuehlke and Paul Kremsky will be at the event in Miami.
The broader macroeconomic fear/disarray is an opportunity to gently scale into riskier assets at attractive prices. The overall sentiment isn’t necessarily bearish, but more of caution. Traders are buying the dips, hence markets continue to be in a consolidatory phase. Given the macroeconomic uncertainty, this is not a bad thing, but in fact a sign of maturity, and confidence among long-term investors.
Technical Outlook:
BITCOIN:
BITCOIN after breaking the long-held resistance of $45,500 made the high of $48,189. On a weekly time frame, the asset has made a ‘Spinning Top’ candle in an uptrend which indicates indecisiveness on the part of bulls to continue its juggernaut for the moment and witnessed profit booking. Technically, BTC is still trading in a ‘Rising Channel’, and to further rally, the prices need to close and sustain above the $48,300. Once it does that then we can expect the asset to further rally up to $50,000 to $52,500 levels whereas $42,500 and $39,500 will act as strong support.
ETH:
ETH had been trading in an uptrend and surged almost by 26% from $2,832 to $3,580 within two weeks.it made a high of $3,578. However, the bulls were unable to push the prices above the resistance level of $3,600 as the asset faced stiff resistance at the top and witnessed a 10% correction. Currently, ETH is trying to take support at the 200 Day Moving Average. If it bounces from here on then we can expect the bulls to resume the up move whereas a break below the 200 Day Moving Average can lead to a further downfall and the asset can test the support of $3,000.
BAT:
BAT was trading in a range from $0.55 to $0.75. The asset finally gave a breakout above the range and rallied almost by 25% up to $0.8. However, BAT faced strong resistance around the psychological level of $1 and witnessed a sharp correction and dropped to the support level of $0.75. Once it gives a close above $1, then we can expect it to further surge up to $1.15 to $1.3 whereas $0.75 will act as strong for the asset.
Weekly Snapshot:
| USD ($) | 31 Mar 22 | 07 Apr 22 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $45,539 | $43,504 | -4.47% | $48,022 | $43,706 | $47,313 | $43,146 |
| ETH | $3,282 | $3,233 | -1.47% | $3,470 | $3,087 | $3,574 | $3,159 |
| MATIC | $1.62 | $1.51 | -6.79% | $1.75 | $1.57 | $1.73 | $1.46 |
| Cryptocurrency | 1w – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | 7.01% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 21.94% |
| Polygon (MATIC) | -6.91% |
| Resistance 2 | $52,500 | $3,600 | $2.05 | $1.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $48,300 | $3,350 | $1.75 | $1.00 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | MATIC | BAT |
| Support 1 | $42,500 | $3,150 | $1.45 | $0.75 |
| Support 2 | $39,500 | $3,000 | $1.30 | $0.55 |
Market Updates:
- The crypto wallet, Robinhood, will not support Ethereum-based services like non-fungible tokens and ERC-20 tokens.
- Vitalik Buterin quietly donated $5M ETH to aid Ukraine as total tracked crypto donations reach $133M.
- Digital currency exchange Crypto.com announced that fighters from the mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion company, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), will be able to win Fight Night bonuses that will be paid in bitcoin.
- The National Bank of Georgia is taking steps to regulate the crypto market in the Southern Caucasus country, its governor revealed in a recent interview.
*Sources of charts: https://cryptowat.ch, https://pro.zebpay.com/trade/USDT-INR
Disclaimer: This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness, or reliability of the information, opinions, or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, etc are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by the Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.
