Bitcoin (BTC) price has fallen more than 5% from $23,500 to $22,240 in just over 60 minutes amid a wave of uncertainty over crypto bank Silvergate Capital. The price crash wiped out $22 billion of Bitcoin’s total market cap, which now stands at $430.9 billion according to CoinmarketCap. Ethereum, XRP, Cardano and Polygon and other non-Bitcoin crypto assets have also seen similarly sharp declines. Historically, March has been a so-so month for Bitcoin. Data shows that Bitcoin has only closed the month of March with double-digit gains twice in the past 10 years, in 2013 and 2021. Therefore, the possibility of continued consolidation in March remains high. The total volume in DeFi is currently $5.21 billion, 9.8% of the total crypto market, and the volume of all stablecoins are around $50 billion, which is 90.8% of the total market volume.
Bitcoin started March on a positive note, but historically the month has posted lacklustre gains, which could be an early warning sign for crypto investors. Bitcoin was slightly positive in February despite the S&P 500 Index (SPX) falling 2.61%. Bitcoin started positively on March 1 as US stock markets struggled. This shows that Bitcoin is trying to distance itself from the US Stock markets. On a positive note, retailers seem to have taken full advantage of the crypto bear market. Instead of panicking and selling their assets, traders bought at lower levels. Data shows that wallets with at least 1 BTC are steadily increasing, approaching the 1 million mark for the first time. The asset is up just 0.03% in US dollar terms over the past month, making February 2023 likely the least volatile on record. Despite its ups and downs, largely due to macroeconomic data, BTC’s price action ended the month almost right where it started at around $23,500. This means that Bitcoin has been more stable than a number of major assets including stocks, commodities and of course the world’s major currencies. However, after January’s 40% gains, the bulls remained strong to save every last satoshi through the beginning of the month.
The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether, shows increasing conflict among traders over the direction of the market for March. This uncertainty has caused the ETH price to consolidate in a tight sideways range between $1,600 and $1,700 since Feb. 15. The uncertainty comes from the long-awaited Ethereum Shanghai update, which will be released sometime in March. Several analysts are predicting that the upgrade, which will allow participants to withdraw their purchased tokens from Ethereum’s Proof-of-Stake (PoS) smart contract, will trigger a near-term liquidation event. The Ethereum PoS smart contract has attracted more than 17.4 million ETH (~$28.35 billion at current exchange rates) since its launch in December 2020, according to Etherscan. Ether is also struggling to break out of the technical resistance area. The Ethereum token has attempted to flip the $1,650-$1,700 range multiple times since August 2022 to support it.
On the macro front, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler claimed that “everything but bitcoin” falls within the agency’s jurisdiction. Comments by two Federal Reserve officials on March 1st reinforced the need for even more aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation. Comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also lowered investor expectations for a monetary policy turnaround in 2023. The tougher stance of the macroeconomic and crypto-regulatory environment caused investors to reconsider their exposure to crypto assets.
Technical Outlook:
Bitcoin:
BTC witnessed a sharp rally and surged almost by 63% from the low of $15,476 to $25,250. The bulls, however, failed to manage the grip on the asset as the price struggled to sustain above the key resistance level of $25,200. On a daily time frame, the asset traded five times above $25k but failed to give a daily closing above the psychological level and witnessed some profit booking. Currently, BTC is trading in a ‘Rising Channel’ pattern where the upper line of the channel is acting as the resistance and the lower upsloping line is acting as strong support. Breakout on either side of the channel with good volumes will further decide the trend for the asset.
ETH:
ETH after taking multiple supports at the low of $1,075 showed good signs of recovery and after giving a breakout above the long-held resistance of $1,250 witnessed a sharp rally and made a high of $1,741. The asset faced strong resistance at $1,750 (Horizontal Trendline) and saw some correction. The prices plunged almost by 16% and dropped to $1,460. Post this move, ETH is trading in a broad range from $1,725 to $1,500. Breakouts on either side of the range will further decide the trend for the asset.
BNB:
BNB after making the low of $220 showed signs of recovery and went up to $255. The asset was facing stiff resistance at $255 and was consolidating in a narrow range. BNB finally broke the resistance and rallied almost by 31% within a month making the weekly high of $337.8.
The asset had resisted at $335 multiple times in the past and this time too the bulls failed to push the prices above the resistance. BNB corrected almost 15% and dropped to $282. The asset is hovering around the support zone from $300 to $280. If it sustains and holds the support then we can expect the bulls to resume the up-move whereas a break below the support will lead to further downfall.
Monthly Snapshot:
| January | February | Last Month | Current Month | ||||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $23,139 | $23,147 | 0.03% | $24,167 | $16,716 | $25,134 | $21,460 |
| ETH | $1,586 | $1,606 | 1.25% | $1,681 | $1,547 | $1,733 | $1,470 |
| BNB | $312.36 | $301.47 | -3.49% | $333.50 | $255.07 | $337.32 | $283.70 |
| crypto | 1m – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | 11.33% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 8.96% |
| Binance Coin (BNB) | 2.23% |
| Resistance 2 | $28,500 | $2,000 | $1.50 | $380 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $25,500 | $1,750 | $1.30 | $336 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | Matic | BNB |
| Support 1 | $21,500 | $1,450 | $1.05 | $300 |
| Support 2 | $18,000 | $1,200 | $0.75 | $255 |
Market Updates:
- Silvergate, which lost United States exchange Coinbase as a client in a decision the latter said came out of “an abundance of caution.” The bank had suffered as a result of the FTX implosion, delaying its 10-K report this week and warning that it could be “less than well capitalized.”
- Hodlnaut’s interim judicial managers released the sixth affidavit of Hodlnaut co-founder Simon Lee, reportedly stating the company’s founders proposed selling the business as a better option for creditors than liquidating the firm.
- Ethereum developers have pushed back the highly-anticipated Shanghai hard fork by approximately two weeks. Initially estimated for late March, the Shanghai upgrade will now likely be deployed sometime within the first two weeks of April.
- The suspected actors behind the $6 million exploit of decentralized finance lending protocol Lendhub have just sent more than half of their ill-gotten gains from January into sanctioned crypto mixer Tornado Cash.
