The Crypto markets continued to trade in mixed, buoyed by the November Federal Reserve meeting that showed that the Federal Reserve would soon regain its footing with an aggressive monetary policy. All major crypto tokens traded higher on Thursday. Solana was the biggest gainer with 11%, followed by a 10% gain in BNB. Ethereum is up 4% in the early Asian hours. The global crypto market cap traded higher, around $824.92 billion, up 1.4% in the last 24 hours. However, total trading volume was down by 22% at just over $47.27 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index had a score of 22/100 which is more than double that which accompanies bear market bottoms.
BTC confronted a 7.3% drop between Nov. 20-21 because it examined the $15,500 support. While the correction appears small, the motion has caused $230 million in liquidations in futures contracts. Despite the best efforts of the bulls, Bitcoin has not been able to record a daily close above $17,000 since November 11th. The move explains why Bitcoin’s $1.14 billion monthly options expiring Nov. 25 could benefit bears despite a 6% recovery from the $15,500 low. BTC/USD avoids volatility after fresh two-year lows the previous day. The pair had analysts guessing the day ahead of US markets’ Digital Currency Group (DCG). Possible liquidity issues at DCG-owned Genesis Trading have continued to roil those already anticipating further losses in bitcoin and altcoins. Bulls need to push the price above $18,000 on Nov. 25 to turn the tables and avoid a potential $245 million loss. However, Bitcoin bulls had recently liquidated $230 million in leveraged futures positions, making them less inclined to push the price higher any time soon. That being said, the most likely scenario is in the $15,000-$17,000 range, giving the bears a decent profit.
There is little hope for bulls on Ether’s weekly or longer-term time frame. Adding to the 69% negative YTD performance, a descending channel has pressured the ETH price while offering resistance at $1,200. Other worrying news for the Ethereum ecosystem involved the decentralized finance (Defi) platform AAVE, which was the victim of an attack by short sellers on 22nd November aimed to profit from undercollateralized loans. Interestingly, a similar exploit occurred in Mango Markets’ Defi app in October. Although not a direct attack on the Ethereum network, the attacker has uncovered critical vulnerabilities in some of the leading decentralized secured lending applications. That’s why the $1.13 billion monthly ether options expiring on November 25th will put major price pressure on the bulls, although ETH gained 11% between November 22nd and 24th. Ether bulls need to push the price above $1,300 on Nov 25 to break even and avoid a potential loss of $215 million. Ether bulls, however, appear to have been unlucky since a Bitcoin wallet related to the 2014 Mt. Gox hack moved 10,000 BTC on Nov. 23.
In the macro front Bitcoin investor sentiment soured after Genesis Trading, part of conglomerate Digital Currency Group (DCG), halted payments on its crypto lending arm on Nov. 16. More importantly, DCG owns fund management company Grayscale, which is responsible for bitcoin’s largest institutional investment vehicle, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Additionally, bitcoin miner Core Scientific has “significant doubts” warned of its continuing operations over the next 12 months given its financial uncertainty. In its quarterly report filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on November 22, the company reported a net loss of $434.8 million for the third quarter of 2022. Finally, on November 22, US Senator Elizabeth Warren correlated the FTX exchange’s decline with the subprime mortgages of 2008. Warren Buffet said the collapse of FTX should be a “wake-up call” for regulators to enforce legislation for the crypto industry.
Technical Outlook:
Bitcoin:
BTC after breaking and closing below the long-held support of $17,500 – $18,000 made the low of $15,500. Post this move, the asset started consolidating in a very narrow range from $16,000 to $17,250 and made a series of small candles. The bulls faced stiff resistance and were not able to push the prices above the key level of $17,500-$18,000 and started moving down and made the new weekly low of $15,476. However, the prices failed to sustain below the range and were back up at $16k levels. If BTC breaks and sustains below $15,500 then it can further fall to $12k levels and to witness a relief rally it needs to break and close above $17,550.
ETH:
ETH faced stiff resistance at the downsloping trendline (drawn from the All time high) and witnessed a sharp fall. The prices plunged almost by 36% making the low of $1,074. The asset broke the uptrend line and the long-held support of $1,200 and gave a weekly closing below that. Post this move, ETH showed signs of recovery and rallied up to $1,348. It struggled to sustain above the uptrend line and witnessed a correction and dropped to $1,079. ETH has strong support at $1,000 and $1,400 will act as a strong resistance for the asset.
BNB:
BNB has been very volatile for the past 30 days. From the high of $398 the prices corrected almost by 35% and plunged to $250. The asset took support at $255 and rallied up to $303 within three trading sessions. BNB is consolidating and trading at the key resistance of $300 (Horizontal Trendline & 200 Day Moving Average). If it closes and sustains above this level then the prices can further rally up to $336.
Weekly Snapshot:
| USD ($) | 18 Nov 22 | 24 Nov 22 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $16,688 | $16,604 | -0.50% | $17,109 | $15,873 | $16,798 | $15,599 |
| ETH | $1,201 | $1,204 | 0.26% | $1,288 | $1,178 | $1,228 | $1,081 |
| BNB | $267.91 | $300.43 | 12.14% | $290.72 | $264.40 | $303.06 | $250.66 |
| crypto | 1w – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | -26.57% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | -22.41% |
| Binance Coin (BNB) | -14.65% |
| Resistance 2 | $22,500 | $1,750 | $1.20 | $336 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $17,500 | $1,400 | $1.05 | $300 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | Matic | BNB |
| Support 1 | $15,000 | $1,000 | $0.75 | $255 |
| Support 2 | $12,000 | $881 | $0.62 | $215 |
Market Updates:
- The Singapore-based crypto lender Hodlnaut is reportedly facing a police probe over allegations of cheating and fraud. The issues started on Aug. 8 after the lending firm cited a liquidity crisis and suspended withdrawals on the platform.
- Belgium’s financial regulatory body has confirmed its position that Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and other crypto assets that are issued solely by computer code do not constitute securities.
- Binance intends to allocate $1 billion for a proposed industry recovery fund, while its CEO revealed intent in a new bid for assets of bankrupt crypto lending firm Voyager by its United States-based business.
- Bitcoin from the 2014 Mt. Gox hack are on the move again, with 65 BTC sent to exchange HitBTC on Nov. 22.
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