Crypto markets have been sideways since the big Bitcoin move on June 21. Overall market capitalization has increase by roughly 2% and is currently at $1.23 trillion. However, the BTC price has failed to break resistance at current levels for the second time this year. The asset was trading up 2% on the day at $30,758 at the time of writing. Ethereum had gained 2.2% and was changing hands for $1,877 during the morning of June 30th. On June 30th, around $4.8 billion in notional value Bitcoin options contracts will expire. It is the largest batch expiry of BTC options contracts since several months and may induce some market volatility. Additionally, there are around $2.3 billion in notional value Ethereum options also expiring on June 30. These have a similar put/call ratio of 0.58.
Bitcoin’s recent breakout above $27,000 is seen by analysts as a speculative move driven by the anticipation of multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, particularly those submitted by BlackRock and ARK Invest. The market is reacting to the potential approval of these ETFs, which would provide institutional investors with easier access to Bitcoin. In addition to the BlackRock and ARK Invest applications, there are expectations that Grayscale, a prominent digital asset management firm, will be able to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a Bitcoin ETF. Indeed, Bitcoin bears may attempt to capitalize on various macroeconomic and regulatory challenges. The implementation of mandatory Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures by crypto exchanges can have an impact on the market. Furthermore, the sell pressure from Bitcoin miners is another factor that bears may exploit. The network hash rate, which represents the computational power used in Bitcoin mining, reaching 400 exahashes per second indicates significant mining activity. On June 27, the price of Bitcoin approached the $31,000 level but faced resistance and was unable to sustain the upward momentum. As a result, the price corrected back to around $30,000. This price action suggests a period of sideways trading in the short term, where the price moves within a relatively narrow range. Investors are likely evaluating the potential impacts of additional interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on the crypto market.
Ether (ETH) experienced a period of narrow range trading between $1,936 and $1,861, indicating indecision and a lack of significant price movement. However, on June 26, the price broke below this range, signalling a downside resolution. Although the bulls managed to push the price back into the range on June 27, they were unable to sustain the higher levels, indicating selling pressure. At present, the bears are attempting to push the price below the moving averages, which are commonly considered as key support levels. If the price breaks and closes below these moving averages, it could be a significant development to monitor. Such a break might open the door for a potential decline towards the strong support level at $1,700. DApp usage on the Ethereum network did not experience significant growth despite a notable decrease of 60% in gas fees. The average transaction cost over a seven-day period dropped to $3.7, down from $9 observed four weeks earlier. Furthermore, active addresses engaging with DApps also declined by 27% during the same timeframe.
On the macro front, On June 28, KuCoin, a crypto exchange, made an announcement regarding an upcoming upgrade to its Know Your Customer (KYC) system. This upgrade is aimed at enhancing compliance with global Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulations. In addition to this news, during the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Portugal, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided insights into the future monetary policy of the United States. Powell indicated that most policymakers anticipate two more interest rate hikes in the remainder of the year. These statements reflect the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to address inflationary pressures and maintain economic stability.
Technical Outlook:
Bitcoin:
BITCOIN after correcting almost by 20% from $31,000 to $24,800 took support at the key level of $25,000 (Horizontal Trendline, 200 Day Moving Average & 50% Fibonacci retracement Level) and started moving upwards. The prices rallied almost by 26% and made a high of $31,431 within nine trading sessions. The asset broke the previous top of $31,000. However, it failed to sustain and give a daily close above that level. Currently, the asset is consolidating above $30,000 and is trying to make a ‘Bullish Flag’ pattern. $32,500 will be the major hurdle for the bulls. If BTC breaks, closes and sustains above the key resistance then we can expect further rally whereas $28,500 will act as a strong support for the asset.
Ethereum:
ETH after making the recent top of $2,146 (on 16th April 2023) was trading in a downtrend and the prices corrected by almost 24% and made a low of $1,628.3. Post this move, the asset made a ‘Bullish Harami’ pattern at the low and has started moving upwards. ETH witnessed a sharp rally and surged 19% up to $1,938. Currently, the asset is consolidating and trading in a range from $1,850 to $1,900. ETH has a strong resistance at $1,950 and to further rally, it needs to break and close above the resistance whereas $1,775 to $1,750 will act as a strong support zone for the asset.
BNB:
BNB made a ‘Tweezer Top’ candle at the recent top of $350 and it has been trading downwards since then. The asset was trying to take support at the psychological level of $300. However, the bulls failed to defend the level and it finally broke the support. After breaking the support of $300, BNB witnessed a sharp fall and made a low of $220 within eight days. The asset took the support exactly at the Previous bottom of December 2022 and didn’t break the key level of $220 and bounced back from $220.4 up to $257. Breakouts below $220 or above $255 with good volumes will further decide the trend for the asset.
Weekly Snapshot:
| USD ($) | 22 Jun 23 | 29 Jun 23 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $30,019 | $30,445 | 1.42% | $30,737 | $25,245 | $31,390 | $29,845 |
| ETH | $1,879 | $1,852 | -1.43% | $1,931 | $1,653 | $1,933 | $1,822 |
| BNB | $241.61 | $233.23 | -3.47% | $255.78 | $232.83 | $248.81 | $226.98 |
| Cryptocurrency | 1w – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | -13.24% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 3.28% |
| Binance Coin (BNB) | -14.30% |
| Resistance 2 | $37,250 | $2,150 | $0.95 | $285 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $32,500 | $1,950 | $0.70 | $255 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | Matic | BNB |
| Support 1 | $28,500 | $1,750 | $0.50 | $220 |
| Support 2 | $25,000 | $1,600 | $0.41 | $200 |
Market Updates:
- On June 29, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group announced its plans to introduce Ether/Bitcoin Ratio futures. The launch of these futures contracts is slated for July 31, subject to regulatory review.
- The team behind the Sui network and its native SUI token has denied allegations that they unlocked SUI staking rewards and “dumped” them on crypto exchange Binance .
- Asset manager Fidelity Investments has filed an application for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), according to a filing by Cboe BZX Exchange with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dated June 19.
- Binance has decided to reverse its plan to delist several privacy coins in Europe after revising operations to comply with local regulations.
