Crypto coins experienced a rise in value following a federal judge’s decision in the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple Labs, which was seen as a victory for the industry in terms of defining securities. Today, the broader crypto market is predominantly in the green. XRP, the centre of the controversy, surged by almost 70% to $0.8. Other tokens like Solana and Cardano, which have also faced SEC scrutiny, saw notable gains of around 16% and 18% respectively. Bitcoin itself increased by nearly 4% to $31,600. The weakening of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) further bolstered the strength of the crypto market. Speculation surrounding the approval of the first Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. had initially contributed to optimism in the crypto market. However, the excitement has somewhat waned since the surge of ETF filings in early July. Nevertheless, some analysts believe that Chairman Gary Gensler may face increased difficulty in rejecting the current round of Bitcoin ETF applications following Ripple Labs’ recent legal victory against the SEC. This development has potentially shifted the regulatory landscape and could impact Gensler’s approach to ETF approvals.
Bitcoin bulls are once again attempting to break through the resistance level at $31,000. Their efforts could receive a boost from the latest United States inflation report, which indicated signs of slowing inflation. Economists had expected the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) to increase by 3.1%, but the June data revealed a rise of 3%, slightly lower than anticipated. The month-on-month increase of 0.2% was also below expectations. These figures suggest that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are having the intended impact, potentially limiting future rate hikes by the central bank. Institutional investors appear to be growing more positive towards crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, supported by favourable macroeconomic conditions. A report from CoinShares published on July 10 highlighted inflows of $136 million into digital investment products in the past week alone. This brings the total inflows over the course of three consecutive weeks to $470 million, reflecting a generally optimistic outlook among institutional investors. Following Ripple’s recent legal victory against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the dominance of Bitcoin in the overall crypto market cap experienced a decline. The surge in altcoin prices briefly pushed Bitcoin dominance below the 50% mark. Bitcoin’s price has been experiencing a rally, approaching the $32,000 level similar to XRP. However, there is a possibility of a pullback in the face of a significant event this week—the $720 million options expiry on July 14. This options expiry has the potential to impact market sentiment and could result in a breach below the crucial support level of $30,000. Traders and investors will closely monitor the market during this period to assess the outcome and its impact on Bitcoin’s price.
The recent court ruling has had a positive impact on Ethereum, propelling its price above $2,000 for the first time in over two months. Ethereum reached a high of $2,009 but has since retraced slightly to its current price of $1,993. This represents a 6% increase in the last 24 hours and a 14% increase in the last month. Prior to this, Ethereum had not traded above $2,000 since May 5. While Ethereum briefly surpassed $2,100 in April, it has largely remained below the $2,000 mark for the past 11 months. Despite the recent increase, Ethereum’s price is still 59% below its peak in November 2021, when it reached $4,878.
On the macro front, The United States Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, which were released on the day, were lower than expected. This contributed to the growing belief that inflation is diminishing, as reflected in the forecasts. Despite this, with two weeks remaining until the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, the market sentiment remained convinced that another rate hike would occur. This sentiment persisted despite the PPI and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released the day before. Given that the CPI data revealed the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021, it is likely that the DXY will continue to decline. In an ideal scenario, investors would interpret a weakening DXY as a reason to invest in assets such as cryptos.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin
BITCOIN after correcting almost by 20% from $31,000 to $24,800 took multiple support at the key level of $25,000 (Horizontal Trendline, 200 Day Moving Average & 50% Fibonacci retracement Level) and started moving upwards. The prices rallied almost by 26% and made a high of $31,500 within nine trading sessions and then it started to consolidate around $30,000. Yesterday, the asset made a new weekly high of $31,804 but with low volumes. Currently, BTC is trying to make a ‘Bullish Flag’ pattern. $32,500 will be the major hurdle for the Bulls. If BTC breaks, closes and sustains above the key resistance then we can expect further rally whereas $28,500 will act as a strong support for the asset.
ETH
ETH made a ‘Bullish Harami’ pattern at the recent low of $1,628.4 (on 15th June 2023) and has surged almost by 21% up to $1,978.4. Post this move, the asset witnessed a minor correction or profit booking as the bulls were struggling to push the prices above the psychological level of the $2k mark and the prices dropped to $1,828. The 50-Day Moving Average was acting as strong support and finally, the bulls managed to cross the psychological level of the $2k mark and made the weekly high of $2,031.4. The previous high of $2,146 will act as a strong resistance for the asset. If it breaks, closes and sustains above the resistance then we can expect the prices to further rally up to $2,400 to $2,500 levels.
BNB
BNB made a ‘Tweezer Top’ candle at the recent top of $350 and it has been trading downwards since then. The asset was trying to take support at the psychological level of $300. However, the bulls failed to defend the level and it finally broke the support. After breaking the support of $300, BNB witnessed a sharp fall and made a low of $220 within eight days. The asset took the support exactly at the Previous bottom of December 2022 and didn’t break the key level of $220 and bounced back from $220.4 up to $257. Post this move, BNB was trading in a broad range from $225 to $250. The Bulls finally gave a breakout above the range and made the weekly high of $261. If it sustains above $250 to $255 then we can expect it to further rally up to $280 levels.
Weekly Snapshot
| USD ($) | 06 Jul 23 | 13 Jul 23 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $29,909 | $31,476 | 5.24% | $31,460 | $29,600 | $31,815 | $29,777 |
| ETH | $1,849 | $2,007 | 8.54% | $1,975 | $1,831 | $2,012 | $1,832 |
| BNB | $232.32 | $256.49 | 10.40% | $251.38 | $231.17 | $257.27 | $231.65 |
| crypto | 1w – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | -12.47% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | -16.95% |
| Binance Coin (BNB) | -4.87% |
| Resistance 2 | $37,250 | $2,450 | $0.95 | $285 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $32,500 | $2,150 | $0.75 | $255 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | Matic | BNB |
| Support 1 | $28,500 | $1,750 | $0.50 | $220 |
| Support 2 | $25,000 | $1,600 | $0.41 | $200 |
Market Updates
- Judge Analisa Torres of the U.S. The District Court for the Southern District of New York agreed with Ripple Labs that roughly half of its $1.4 billion XRP token sales didn’t constitute an illegal securities offering. Critically, the judge also determined that XRP is not a security.
- The former CEO of now-bankrupt crypto lender Celsius, Alex Mashinsky, was reportedly arrested on the morning of July 13. The news broke minutes after the SEC filed a lawsuit against the crypto lender on the same day.
- The Binance-operated BNB Beacon Chain mainnet is set to add a new feature in its upcoming hard fork, which will allow the blockchain to “halt” the production of new blocks if certain conditions are met.
