Crypto Technical Analysis Report | 11th-August-2023

On Friday, the global crypto market sustained losses for the third consecutive day, experiencing a decrease of 0.35% to reach a total market capitalization of $1.17 trillion compared to the previous day. The overall trading volume also saw a notable drop, declining by 25.92% to $25.7 billion. During this period, Pepe (PEPE) emerged as the most trending crypto for the third consecutive day, registering a positive movement of 1.67% and reaching a value of $0.000001254. The 24-hour trading volume for Pepe amounted to $76.61 million. Bitcoin, the leading crypto, observed a decrease of 0.52% in its value, settling at $29,404.06. The trading volume for Bitcoin within the 24-hour period stood at $11.53 billion. As per its market cap, Bitcoin retained its top position on Coinmarketcap, and its market dominance was recorded at 48.76%, experiencing a marginal decline of 0.07% over the past 24 hours. Similarly, Ethereum faced a dip of 0.33%, with its value decreasing to $1,846.95 from the previous day’s level. The 24-hour trading volume for Ethereum reached $3.75 billion during this period

On August 10, Bitcoin (BTC) was hovering around the $29,500 mark as the markets awaited the release of the latest United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Despite a strong initial surge earlier in the year that led to nearly doubling its price, Bitcoin has been experiencing a phase of relatively tight trading range over the past few months. It has encountered challenges in maintaining a sustained position above the $30,000 mark. A noticeable trend has been observed since April, and particularly since mid-June, where Bitcoin’s attempts to break out above $30,000 have been met with sharp reversals. A notable instance occurred on July 13, when Bitcoin skyrocketed to a one-year peak surpassing $31,800, driven by a favourable court ruling for XRP in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s legal case against Ripple, the entity associated with XRP. However, this surge was short-lived, as Bitcoin quickly retreated not only from the $31,000 level but also from the $30,000 threshold. Within a matter of days, its price slid below $29,000 once again. This pattern highlights the challenge Bitcoin has faced in maintaining momentum above the $30,000 mark and the notable volatility within this range.  Another factor contributing to the absence of momentum is the miners’ decision to secure profits in anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. The halving, known for its reduction of block rewards to 3.125 bitcoins from the existing 6.25, is scheduled to occur on April 16, 2024. This reduction in rewards is a key event that miners are preparing for by cashing in their gains, thereby affecting the current market dynamics.

Ether’s price has been tightly bound within a trading range of $1,800 to $1,900 since July 21. Despite positive recent developments like PayPal’s Ethereum-based stablecoin launch and increased interest in Ether-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), this unusually low volatility has left investors uncertain and sceptical. Notably, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has seen a surge in applications for Ether ETFs, following a trend seen with major asset management firms seeking Bitcoin ETFs. While the potential approval of an ETF and the boost from PayPal’s stablecoin support Ether’s bullish outlook, it’s important to acknowledge competition from existing smart contract platforms and well-funded challengers. This landscape of possibilities adds an element of uncertainty about the resilience of the $1,800 support level for the Ether network.

On the macro front, The Consumer Price Index (CPI) holds significant importance for the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on interest rates. The CPI reading for June, the lowest in two years, had set the stage for another potential decrease in July. However, there was a possibility that CPI might actually increase, which could put pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as they tend to benefit from a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy. Two main uncertainties are at play, which were initially considered unlikely to impact the July figures: the direct and indirect effects of recent energy and food price increases on overall inflation, and the persistence of inflation in services. Despite these uncertainties, the market’s expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s rate hike decisions leaned toward a pause in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September.

Technical Outlook:

BITCOIN:

Bitcoin continues to trade sideways in a narrow range with low volumes indicating indecision. The asset is hovering just around its 50 Day Moving Average. BTC after making the recent high of $31,804 witnessed profit booking and the prices corrected almost by 10% and made a low of  $28,585. The asset took support at the crucial level of $28,500 and bounced back up to $30,000. However, the bulls failed to sustain and keep the prices above the psychological level of $30k. Breakouts above $32,500 or below $28,500 with good volumes will further decide the trend for the asset.

Ethereum

ETH after making the recent high of $2,031.4 (last month) has been trading in a downtrend and the prices have corrected almost by 11% making a low of $1,802.6. The asset made a ‘ Long Legged Doji’ candle at the support of the upsloping trendline indicating indecision in trend. ETH has a very strong support zone from $1,800 to $1,750. If it holds and sustains above the support then we can expect the bulls to resume the up move whereas a break below the support will lead to further downfall.

BNB

BNB made a ‘Tweezer Top’ candle at the previous top of $350 and it has been trading downwards since then. The asset was trying to take support at the psychological level of $300. However, the bulls failed to defend the level and it finally broke the support. After breaking the support of $300, BNB witnessed a sharp fall and made a low of $220. The asset took the support exactly at the Previous bottom of December 2022 and didn’t break the key level of $220 and bounced back from $220.4 up to $257. Post this move, BNB is trading in a  range from $230 to $250. Breakouts on either side of the range with good volumes will further decide the trend for the asset.

Weekly Snapshot

Market Updates

• XRP briefly hits $50 on Gemini as users suspect a ‘price glitch’. Crypto users have reported seeing “wonky” prices for Ripple’s XRP token on the Gemini crypto exchange, only hours after the exchange relisted the token on its platform for trading.
• The Biden administration allotted $20 million in rewards for AI companies to help secure the country’s critical infrastructure. A preliminary phase will select up to 20 high-performing teams to progress to the semifinals of DEF CON 2024, all eligible to win up to $2 million each and move on to the DEF CON 2025 finals.
• A newly discovered vulnerability in the Libbitcoin Explorer 3 library has allowed over $900,000 to be stolen from Bitcoin users, according to a report from blockchain security firm SlowMist. The vulnerability can also affect users of Ethereum, Ripple, Dogecoin, Solana, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and Zcash who use Libbitcoin to generate accounts.