Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $57,000 early Friday. Other major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Litecoin (LTC), also experienced declines, as the overall Market Fear & Greed Index indicated “Fear” with a score of 40 out of 100, according to CoinMarketCap data. The MANTRA (OM) token was the top performer, surging over 7% in the past 24 hours, while memecoin BONK saw the steepest drop, falling more than 11%. Given the positive outlook for traditional finance, investors are puzzled by Bitcoin’s lack of bullish momentum. This decoupling is particularly concerning, especially considering that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen $800 million in inflows over the past four trading days, according to Farside Investors’ data. Adding to the concern, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, dropped to its lowest level in five weeks at 104.4. This decline indicates that investors are not flocking to cash positions, which might partly explain Bitcoin’s bearish trend.
Bitcoin’s fear and greed index has plunged into “extreme fear” for the first time since January 2023, as the crypto struggles to reclaim a crucial price level. The index’s decline coincides with Bitcoin’s failure to break above the $60,000 mark for the second time in 48 hours. After rallying to $59,485 on July 10, Bitcoin quickly dropped to $57,000 within 12 hours. On July 11, it briefly hit $59,529 but failed to maintain that level. Currently trading at $57,499, Bitcoin is down 23% from its all-time high reached on March 14 this year. Recent negative sentiment is partly attributed to Mt. Gox beginning repayments to creditors on July 5, potentially releasing up to $8.5 billion worth of Bitcoin into the market. Additionally, significant sales from the German government, which transferred 16,254 BTC—worth $935 million at current prices—to market makers and exchanges in the last 24 hours, have further contributed to Bitcoin’s decline.
Ethereum’s price found support on Monday at $2,817, its low from May 1, and rebounded by 2.7% over the next two days. As of Friday, it is trading slightly up by 0.32% at $3,059. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) on the daily chart are currently below their respective neutral levels of 50 and zero. For bullish momentum to be sustained, both indicators need to rise above these critical levels, which could support the ongoing recovery rally. Eight spot Ether ETFs are awaiting final approval from United States regulators and are expected to begin trading, possibly as soon as this month. These funds will join an existing roster of around a dozen Bitcoin ETFs, which have been trading since January. Collectively, BTC ETFs currently manage approximately $15.9 billion. It is cautioned that a rebound in ETH’s performance may not extend to altcoins, partly due to a lack of overlap between institutional and retail markets in the crypto space.
Additionally, The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3% year-over-year in June, slightly below the market consensus of 3.1%. Despite this data suggesting higher odds of rate cuts, with over 90% consensus for at least one 0.25% rate cut by September, Bitcoin’s price remains stuck below $60,000. In contrast, the S&P 500 index is just 0.5% below its all-time high, and gold, the market’s preferred store of value, is trading 1.2% below its record high of $2,450 set in May 2024. Additionally, the Russell 2000 small-cap index, which excludes the 1,000 largest U.S.-listed companies saw a 3% increase on July 11.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin
Bitcoin, after taking support at $56,000 (on 1st May) rallied up to $71,979. Post this move, the asset witnessed a sharp correction as the bulls failed to cross the new all-time high of $73,777 and failed to sustain above the $70k mark. The prices corrected almost by 25% and dropped to $53,485. BTC has a strong support zone from $52,000 to $50,000 whereas $60,000 will act as a strong resistance.
Ethereum
ETH after giving a breakout above the ‘Descending Triangle’ pattern rallied up to $3,977. However, the bulls failed to manage their grip on the asset as the prices didn’t cross the psychological resistance of $4,000 and started consolidating between $3,900 to $3,700. ETH gave a breakout on the downside of the range and witnessed a sharp correction. The prices dropped to $2,810. The asset has a strong support zone from $3,000 to $2,850. If it holds and sustains above these levels then we can expect the bulls to resume the up move.
BNB
BNB after making the new all-time high of $721 witnessed a sharp correction as it failed to give a weekly close above the previous all-time high of $691. The prices corrected almost by 36.5% and dropped to $455. The asset has bounced back above $500 and the lower longer shadow below $500 indicates buying at these levels. BNB has a strong resistance at $550. If it breaks, sustains and closes above the resistance then we may expect it to further rally up to $625.
Weekly Snapshot:
| USD ($) | 04 Jul 24 | 11 Jul 24 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $56,978 | $57,345 | 0.64% | $63,777 | $56,778 | $59,359 | $53,717 |
| ETH | $3,055 | $3,100 | 1.48% | $3,513 | $3,055 | $3,209 | $2,826 |
| BNB | $513.99 | $525.14 | 2.17% | $587.28 | $512.42 | $540.08 | $456.92 |
| Crypto | 1w – % Vol. Change (Global) |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 27.77% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 41.16% |
| Binance Coin (BNB) | 15.72% |
| Resistance 2 | $66,500 | $3,750 | $1.00 | $625 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $60,000 | $3,350 | $0.75 | $550 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | Matic | BNB |
| Support 1 | $56,000 | $3,000 | $0.6 | $500 |
| Support 2 | $52,000 | $2,850 | $0.5 | $450 |
Market Updates:
- The German government’s Bitcoin wallet is down to 9,094 Bitcoin — just 18% of what it started with — after the latest string of back-and-forth transfers to crypto exchanges on July 11.
- The United States commodities regulator chief has again argued that Bitcoin and Ether — the two largest crypto assets by market cap — are commodities, and his agency should be given oversight of them.
- A bipartisan group of 20 US senators has reached a new agreement on legislation that would ban all members of Congress from trading stocks.
