The current short-term uncertainty in the crypto market seems to have had no effect on the long-term perspective of institutional investors. Despite facing challenges from the regulatory landscape in the United States, significant institutions remain committed to advancing Bitcoin-related financial products, which has the potential to trigger a bullish market trend. In fact, Grayscale has directly appealed to the SEC for the approval of all Bitcoin ETFs. However, despite the strong push from prominent financial entities, the SEC appears inclined to prolong its decision-making process regarding the approval of Bitcoin ETFs until 2024. This continuous delay in decision-making could adversely affect both investor sentiment and the overall price movement within the crypto market. The lack of steady trading volume has caused the Fear and Greed Index, a crucial indicator of investor sentiment, to trend downwards over the past 30 days. This shift has led to a transition from a neutral sentiment to a more fearful sentiment among investors.
The strong upward momentum that drove Bitcoin to achieve a notable 57.8% year-to-date increase has significantly diminished this week, resulting in a 9.1% decline over the past 7 days. Currently, the price of Bitcoin remains below the crucial 20-week exponential moving average, which is set at $27,750. Reclaiming this level is essential to initiate any form of renewed bullish momentum. The decrease in Bitcoin’s price has led certain analysts to draw parallels between the current BTC market and the period before the bullish market cycle observed between 2015 and 2017. Trading volume for Bitcoin has reached its lowest levels since the beginning of 2021, with BTC Ordinals volume experiencing a significant decline of over 98%. The imminent $1.9 billion Bitcoin monthly options expiry scheduled for August 25 holds significant importance in determining the viability of the $26,000 support level. While some attribute the recent decline in the crypto market to the SEC’s postponed decision on spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, it’s important to consider the broader macroeconomic context. To avoid a potential loss of $380 million linked to the monthly Bitcoin options expiry, those supporting a bullish Bitcoin trend need to ensure that its price remains above $27,000 by August 25. This scenario underscores the intricate relationship between market dynamics, regulatory developments, and the efforts to maintain favourable price levels in the crypto landscape.
Ether experienced another drop below the robust support level of $1,626; however, the presence of a long tail on the candlestick indicates substantial buying activity at these lower price levels. This suggests that there is strong demand and investor interest in acquiring Ether when its price dips, potentially contributing to a bounce back from these depths. The responsibility lies with the bullish investors to push the price beyond the barrier of overhead resistance set at $1,700. If they successfully achieve this, it could propel the ETH/USDT pair towards the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) situated at $1,756. This particular level stands as a crucial point to monitor closely in the short term.
On the macro front, crypto enthusiasts in recent times have faced notable hurdles in the form of regulatory obstacles. This is evident from the current legal battles involving the two prominent crypto exchanges, Binance and Coinbase, against the SEC. Adding to the complexity, the favourable outcome Ripple celebrated against the SEC is now facing an appeal from the regulatory authority.
Moreover, Bitstamp has made the decision to cease staking services for its U.S.-based clients, raising concerns about the evolving regulatory environment in the U.S., particularly in relation to how Ether is categorised – whether as a commodity or a security. In a similar vein, Binance has announced the suspension of its crypto debit card offerings across regions like Latin America and the Middle East. This action comes in the wake of allegations that Binance has also put a hold on euro withdrawals and deposits through SEPA as of August 20. The exchange has clarified that there’s no set timeline for the resumption of these services.
Technical Outlook:
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin after making the high of $31,804 witnessed some profit booking and the prices dropped to $28,585. The asset then started consolidating and was trading sideways in a range from $28,750 to $30,000 and was taking good support at $28,500. However, BTC finally gave a breakout below the range and made a low of $25,166. Bitcoin has taken multiple supports in the past at the crucial level of $25,000 (Horizontal trendline & 50% Fibonacci Retracement). This time too, the prices have bounced slightly after testing the support and the lower longer shadow indicates buying around these levels. If it holds and sustains above $25k then we can expect the bulls to resume the up-move whereas a break and close below the support will lead to further downfall.
ETH:
ETH after making a ‘Hammer’ candle at the low of $1,368.3 witnessed a sharp rally and the prices surged up to $2,141.5. Post this move, the asset started trading in a ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ pattern where the lower uptrend line was acting as a support and the upper downtrend line was acting as a resistance. ETH finally gave a breakout on the downside of the range and the prices reached a low of $1,550. Currently, the asset is consolidating and trading in a range from $1,575 to $1,700. ETH has a strong support zone from $1,550 to $1,500 whereas $1,700 to $1,750 will act as a strong resistance zone for the asset.
BNB:
BNB made a ‘Tweezer Top’ candle at the high of $350 and witnessed a sharp correction. The prices plunged almost by 37% and made a low of $220. The asset was taking good support at $220 and started trading in an ‘Ascending Triangle’ pattern. BNB however, broke the pattern on the downside and saw another correction. It also broke the long-held support of $220 and made a low of $203. BNB has made a ‘Morning Star’ pattern at the low. However, to witness a rally it needs to break, close and sustain above the crucial level of $220.
Weekly Snapshot:
| USD ($) | 17 Aug 23 | 24 Aug 23 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $26,664 | $26,162 | -1.88% | $29,660 | $25,409 | $26,808 | $25,521 |
| ETH | $1,552 | $1,660 | 6.97% | $1,886 | $1,860 | $1,552 | $1,596 |
| BNB | $218.54 | $218.65 | 0.05% | $241.91 | $214.55 | $220.39 | $204.40 |
| Crypto | 1w – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | 5.17% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 18.62% |
| Binance Coin (BNB) | 14.38% |
| Resistance 2 | $32,500 | $2,150 | $0.95 | $255 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $28,500 | $1,750 | $0.75 | $220 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | Matic | BNB |
| Support 1 | $25,000 | $1,500 | $0.50 | $200 |
| Support 2 | $22,500 | $1,350 | $0.41 | $2180 |
Market Updates
- The Base and Optimism networks have reached a new agreement on revenue and governance sharing — a move developers say will enhance both ecosystems.
- Binance’s peer-to-peer (P2P) crypto exchange in Russia has continued facilitating transactions through sanctioned banks like Rosbank after denying relationships with “any banks.”
- Investment firms ARK Invest and 21Shares have teamed up to apply for two Ethereum futures exchange-traded funds after reports emerged last week that the United States securities regulator could soon begin approving applications.
