01 October 2021 | ZebPay Trade-Desk
Bitcoin now faces stiff resistance in the range of $44,500, and then at $47,000. This comes after the asset fell significantly at different points in time this month from the $51,000 mark this month. BTC buyers were quite active after the fall took place. The asset is trending towards the $44,500 mark, its next stiff resistance, and if that happens a rally might occur.
Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase as of now though and will be so until the price does not beat the $45,000 mark. BTC, as always, has had a spillover effect on some altcoins too, as most altcoins have also witnessed corrections this month. Ethereum too has seen an appreciation of fall 20% this month, and as it hit the $2,750 mark at its lowest, but has risen a little since. This fall could fuel inflows into these assets, namely BTC and ETH, as many investors have been on the sidelines over the past couple of weeks.
The overall outlook is mixed at this point in time, and this upside seen during the week, may very well act as the much-needed respite the market needed, and hence the next few days remain very crucial at this point. Over the course of the month, crypto markets have largely been on the downside, and in the red, primarily due to the Chinese crackdown which has been in the news. A very small recovery seems to have begun, and markets have been in the green over the past 2 days or so.
The market capitalization of the largest asset in the crypto space followed the same trail of volume and moved accordingly. BTC is reigning as the undisputed holder of market rank 1. ETH follows as it continues to see decent inflows. The overall pessimistic views in the marketplace have led to investors growing increasingly cautious, and many have chosen to book profits during the fall. Interestingly, ETH/BTC ratios also hit new lows for the month. China’s crackdown significantly impacted ETH, which fell by 14%, almost immediately after the news came in. BTC in comparison fell by 10%, as investors became increasingly pessimistic on the pair. Ether underperformed directly against Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC pair falling to 0.066 BTC for the first time this month. At its yearly high, the pair traded at 0.079 BTC.
Before the cryptocurrencies experienced the plunge they also enjoyed a linear rally, markets are supposed to go through such cycles, and soon the asset will be bouncing back. Research points out that the ripple effects of the defaults of Evergrande have caused this crash. Other reasons could be the ongoing debates over the Washington debt limit which is acting as a stimulant for this week’s volatility. This whole facade led to the “stock market fear index”, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumping more than 30% since May. Again the meeting of the Federal Reserve which is supposed to end by today is signaling when the cut of $120 Billion monthly asset purchase program is expected. The crypto market is showing faint signs of recovery but negative news from China restrictions and other countries are dampening the investors’ sentiments.
September Fundamental Snapshot at ZebPay:
The ZebPay trade desk also conducted research on broader, fundamental investment topics and our weekly technical reports this month. We conducted a market watch of leading assets earlier this week, and also covered all the new coins we launched in September.
DogeCoin (DOGE) Launch
Dogecoin (DOGE) is based on the popular internet meme “doge” and has the Shiba Inu symbol in its logo. The open-source digital currency was created by Billy Markus from Portland, Oregon, and Jackson Palmer from Sydney, Australia, and forked from Litecoin in December 2013. Dogecoin’s creators envisioned it as a cryptocurrency. Cheerful and upbeat will have more appeal than the mainstream Bitcoin audience, because it’s based on a dog meme.
Dogecoin started off with a supply cap of 100 billion coins, which is far more than mainstream cryptocurrencies. By mid-2015, the 100 billionth Dogecoin was mined, after which another 5 billion coins were circulated annually. There is no theoretical supply limit, at this rate, the number of Dogecoins put into circulation will only double in 20 years (the next doubling will occur in 2075). There is no hard limit on Dogecoin total.
To read our in-depth report on the asset, please click here.
Alchemy Pay (ACH) Launch
Alchemy Pay is the world’s first payment gateway key to bridge the gap between crypto and fiat economies. Apart from crypto payments, Alchemy Pay enables easy and harmonious access to blockchain solutions, crypto investments, and DeFi services designs required to provide elite veterans as well as those who are new to crypto and blockchain technology.
ACH which is the native token of Alchemy Pay has a maximum supply of 10 billion. The circulating supply is about 3.15 billion ACH coins of which 62% is from the initial allocation for utility and 38% for stakeholders.
To read our in-depth report on the asset, please click here.
Marketwatch Report – BTC, ETH, and ADA
Before the cryptocurrencies experienced the plunge they also enjoyed a linear rally, markets are supposed to go through such cycles, and soon the asset will be bouncing back. Research points out that the ripple effects of the defaults of Evergrande have caused this crash. Other reasons could be the ongoing debates over the Washington debt limit which is acting as a stimulant for this week’s volatility. These developments have significantly impacted the assets mentioned above.
To know more about the key fundamental developments for these assets, please click here
Pancakeswap Launch
PancakeSwap, by far the most popular decentralized exchange (DEX) on Binance Smart Chain (BSC), has gained a lot of traction in the blockchain space in recent months, thanks to its massive liquidity, a wide range of features and base of business, and of course to considerable users.
The chefs of PancakeSwap as of now do not maintain a concrete roadmap, but there exists a list of to-do in public without any specific timelines. Some of the major items on the list are the inclusion of fixed-term staking products, borrowing, and lending features, and the ability for users to earn NFTs by completing tasks and leveling up. As of now, the Pancake Circulating supply is 226,228,958 CAKE tokens and there is no maximum supply data available.
To read our in-depth report on the asset, please click here.
Weekly Technical Analysis:
The next few days are likely to be quite interesting for the largest asset by market capitalization, Bitcoin (BTC), as it is hovering around the $43,000 mark, and the battle between the bears and bulls intensifies. Ethereum (ETH), too, is looking promising at current levels and faces strong resistance at $3,200 next. But, if it beats that, it might just witness another rally.
This week’s price action has in fact flipped the market sentiment to some degree. After last month’s rather bullish take, we are witnessing bears sustaining the upward trend. Volumes however have held up. On-chain metrics haven’t been showing any rally-specific trends either. This means that the network is under-utilized, and the on-chain activity would have to catch up with price performance in order to sustain the market. Overall, the market has been largely in the red this month, and while we anticipate a recovery to set in, we can’t be sure when that will happen, due to both the macroeconomic uncertainty, and the pessimistic view that the market currently holds.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $43,650 reflecting a gain of about 0.3% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
The battle between the bears and the bulls continues as the asset hovers around $44,000. After BTC dropped below $40,000 on Sept. 21, the asset now trades above $44,150. Volumes have seen an uptrend movement over the past few days and that is anticipated, as when assets are correct, it looks a lot more attractive, which is why participants buy-in. The asset seems to have recovered well after it saw a major fall after China’s crackdown on cryptocurrency last week.
Bitcoin last month started on a good note and made a high of $52,944. The asset faced stiff resistance at higher levels and witnessed a sharp correction by almost 25% making the monthly low of $39,600. Post this move, BTC made a ‘Bullish Harami’ pattern and showed some signs of recovery. Technically, the asset is trading in an ‘Ascending Triangle’ and is taking multiple support around the $40k mark. If the bulls manage to hold the support, BTC might resume its up move and we can expect some relief rally. The asset has a strong resistance around $45,000 to $46,500, if the breakout occurs above these levels then the prices may rally above the $50k mark. On the contrary, the break or close below the recent low, the bears will take the lead and the prices could slide to $37,000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $3,000 reflecting a loss of about 0.5% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
The battle between the bears and bulls continues, which is probably why ETH has been in a consolidating phase, over the past few days, trading in a range-bound fashion. The overall pessimistic views in the marketplace have led to investors growing increasingly cautious, and many have chosen to book profits during the fall. China’s crackdown significantly impacted ETH, which fell by 14%, almost immediately after the news came in. Volumes have shown good traction, as at current prices the asset does look fairly attractive. Institutional inflows into ETH have reduced, but given the looming uncertainty and volatility currently, this is like a short-term occurring.
ETH witnessed a sharp correction after touching the $4k mark and fell almost by 34% from $4027.9 to $2,656.9. The prices have taken support at $2,625 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level) and have shown signs of recovery. Technically, on the daily time frame, ETH has made a ‘Bullish Engulfing’ pattern and started to move up. The asset faced resistance of around $3,175 and yet again witnessed a sell-off over the weekend. However, it did not test the recent lows and reversed from $2,735 and has taken multiple support at this level. Currently, ETH is consolidating and trading in a range between $3,170 to $ 2,750. Hence, we conclude that to further rally, ETH needs to break and close above $3,175.
Binance Coin (BNB) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, BNB is trading around $386.5 reflecting a gain of about 1.40% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
BNB is a layer 1 token, used to trade and pay fees in the Binance ecosystem. It was first introduced as an ERC20 token and has since evolved to operate on the Binance Smart Chain, with its own standards. BNB is the native token of the largest, and leading exchange globally, Binance. BNB at the time of writing has a market capitalization of $64bn and is the 5th largest asset. Over the past week or so, the market has been in the red, and BNB is no exception, falling by close to 15% week on week. Volumes though, have held up well, and have seen a boost over the past 2 days, as at current levels, the asset looks rather attractive
BNB after making ‘Double Top or (M) Pattern’ witnessed a sharp correction and made the low of $320. Post this move, the asset has made a ‘Bullish Engulfing Pattern’ and has shown good signs of recovery. The strong green candle with good volumes indicates aggressive buying from bulls and the asset is trying to make ‘Higher High Higher Low’ formation. BNB has an immediate resistance of around $400k. If the prices breach these levels with good volumes then we can expect the asset to rally up to the $450 mark.
Monthly Trade Summary Sheet:
Monthly Price Analysis:
| August | September | Previous Month | Current Month | ||||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $44,167 | $43,791 | -0.85% | $50,483 | $37,458 | $52,854 | $39,788 |
| ETH | $3,434 | $3,002 | -12.58% | $3,467 | $2,463 | $4,022 | $2,676 |
| BNB | $464.42 | $387.06 | -16.66% | $518.96 | $318.060 | $510.06 | $320.37 |
Monthly Volume Analysis:
| Cryptocurrency | 1m – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | 11.55% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | -3.87% |
| Biinance Coin (BNB) | -7.77% |
Support and Resistance Levels:
| Resistance 2 | $53,000 | $3,650 | $448.000 |
| Resistance 1 | $46,500 | $3,300 | $400.000 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | BNB |
| Support 1 | $40,000 | $2,650 | $320.000 |
| Support 2 | $37,000 | $2,400 | $280.000 |
Market Updates:
- HLTH Network is deploying a new line of products on the interoperable, highly scalable platform Avalanche, the open-source solution for developing blockchain projects.
- DOGE Co-Founder, Billy Markus has talked up a proposed Dogecoin-to-Ethereum bridge so that DOGE can be used on top NFT marketplaces such as OpenSea.
- President Bukele revealed gas stations in El Salvador will begin selling each gallon of fuel at a $0.20 discount for those who pay using the Bitcoin Chivo wallet.
- The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, explains that some laws provide “significant investor protections” for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including those seeking to invest in bitcoin futures.
- Authorities in Indonesia do not intend to follow China’s example of imposing an outright ban on cryptocurrencies, a government official said, noting the country will limit itself to ensuring they are not used in illegal activities.
October Outlook:
The overall sentiment has been bearish this month, but seems like it might stick. Markets were volatile, but given that, most of the month has been in the red. In the month of October, we expect our favorite asset BTC to see attractive volumes and growth, as, at these levels, accumulation is likely. Volumes have started to see a recovery, which is necessary for prices to hold. Along with BTC and ETH, the majority of other altcoins also witnessed a similar trend, falling through most of the month.
As Banks, FIs, Governments, and MNCs continue to adopt digital assets, coupled with the ever so increasing coverage this asset class has been witnessing among institutions and research papers, the macroeconomic outlook is strong. As mainstream, more credible fund managers and economists start investing and holding BTC as well as ETH, we expect others to follow suit, further instilling belief in the asset class, and pumping up volumes. With countries now starting to consider cryptos as legal tenders, the outlook is even more positive.
Lastly, we expect October to be a positive month and anticipate the upward trend to continue. Though volatility seems to be a given, fundamentally BTC and ETH, the largest assets by market cap, continue to hold a strong footing in the marketplace. Given that, we remain bullish on both BTC as well as ETH and feel positively towards altcoins, especially those operating in the DeFi ecosystem, and also BNB the native token of Binance Exchange.
Conclusion:
This concludes our ZebPay September Monthly Analysis report. The report aims to provide its readers with some insight into what the month has been like for us at ZebPay, and dive into some outcomes as a future approach on what we expect to happen next. The trade-desk has put together a snapshot for our investors to understand both the fundamental and technical analysis for better trading and investment decisions, coupled with some market updates and key events that readers can refer to to get a glimpse of the key developments taking place in the crypto world and how this is shaping markets.
Happy Trading with ZebPay!
References:
*Sources of charts: https://cryptowat.ch
Disclaimer:
This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum etc.are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.
