Weekly Trade Report: Another Correction?


22 January 2021 | ZebPay Trade-Desk

BTC has seen a correction this week, currently at $32,000 levels. ETH and other altcoins have followed suit. Let’s look at what we have in store for a trade set-up. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Chart:

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $31,800 reflecting a loss of 9.5% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

Bitcoin has seen a further correction this week, falling over 15% over the previous week. However, the largest asset by market capitalization continues to see strong inflows, and volumes seem to be gaining momentum, reflecting a positive overall sentiment.

After making the all-time high of $41,986, Bitcoin was facing stiff resistance around $40,500 levels against which the bears go strong with a view of “sell on highs.” We saw a sharp fall in Bitcoin once it broke the support line of the Loudspeaker channel.  It has corrected almost 32% from the all time high making the low of $ 28,732. In such a highly volatile market for the prices to go up, Bitcoin should close and sustain market bulls above the horizontal support line of $29,890 as shown in the chart. If it breaks the support and closes below that we can see more downside on BTC. Hence remain bullish on BTC. However, analysis will be negated if it closes and trades above all the support levels.

Institutional flows have continued to impress, hence the picture over the long term is fairly positive. Tactically $29,891 and $27,678 are acting as good support, and dips accumulation remains an attractive strategy. 

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Chart:

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $1200 reflecting a loss of 11.5% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

ETH continues to benefit from good institutional flows, as well as good commitments from investors contributing to good volumes. The second largest asset by market capital, is gaining more traction from investors, and the crypto community, as FI’s and banks seem to have good faith in the asset. As the DeFi space continues to expand, and the era of ETH 2.0 is streamlined further, over the longer term the picture for ETH seems to be very positive.

As we mentioned in our last week’s report that Eth may go up to $1,400 levels. Last week it made the all time high of  $1439.8. We saw a profit booking at the higher levels dragging the prices lower, while it made the low of $1,048.9. This is approximately a 27% correction from its ATH. After the correction from the highs, we can see in the chart that it had taken the support of the ascending trendline. If it breaks the trendline it may go to $950 – $900 levels.

ETH is still trading in an upward channel as shown in the chart. It will face a strong resistance at $1,265 and $1,424 levels. For further rally it needs to break these strong resistance levels with good volumes.

Basic Attention Token (BAT) Technical Analysis and Chart:

At the time of writing, BAT is trading around $0.28805 reflecting a gain of about 15% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

BAT has successfully exited the long bearish trend it had formed in the last month as the prices carried an upward momentum upto the price of $0.29.

BAT is trading in a broad range of $0.1945 to $0.2887. However, on a weekly chart we can see it is taking support of the trendline but the resistance is quite evident and for further upside it needs to break the resistance convincingly. Today it made a high $0.3125 breaking the stiff resistance of $0.29. If it closes and sustains above these levels we may see a sharp upward move. In a range bound market, if it fails to do so we may see the same price range of $0.29 to $0.222.

Having said that, we tilt to the longer bullish side once the resistance of $0.29 is breached. Analysis will be negated if price closes above the recent high.

USDT-INR Technical Analysis and Chart: 

At the time of writing, USDT-INR  is  trading around $80.23 reflecting a profit of about 3.50% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

In the Indian market, the USDT-INR pair shares an interesting relationship with its underlying asset, that is the USD-INR pair in the forex market. The pair is operating with a 7.5% premium, compared to its traditional counterpart. This is why we have seen a slight dip in ETH and BTC volumes, due to the inverse relationship between USDT premiums and ETH/BTC volumes. Traders tend to liquidate the stablecoin when prices of digital assets are slumping, forming the reason for this inverse relationship. The USDT-INR pair has been largely range bound, between $77-$81. We can see USDT is taking support at $76.9 levels, we anticipate further downside movement once it breaks this support. The next support level is at $75.3.

Biden has taken the win in US presidential elections, and was sworn in this week, reflecting a positive sentiment among the market participants. In addition, the recent string of US data is encouraging economists to revise up forecasts for GDP, as the new US administration announced a huge US stimulus package. On the other hand, RBI’s recent comments suggest the Central Bank will continue their intervention in 2021 to build-up huge forex reserves ignoring rupee’s underperformance versus the regional currencies. Much of these inputs seemed to have been priced in as USD has shown good stability, and hence we remain slightly bearish on the pair, though we still anticipate the range bound trends of the market to continue here in the near term.

Weekly Trade Summary Sheet: 

Weekly Price Analysis:

USD ($)14 Jan 2121 Jan 21Previous WeekCurrent Week
CloseClose% ChangeHighLowHighLow

Weekly Volume Analysis:

Cryptocurrency1w – % Vol. Change (Global)
BitCoin (BTC)-24.40%
Ethereum (ETH)-7.19%
Basic Attention Token (BAT)12.04%

Weekly Price Pointers:

Resistance 2$40,425$1,424$0.3705
Resistance 1$38,085$1,265$0.2888
Support 1$29,891$1,048$0.2224
Support 2$27,678$979$0.1950

Market Updates:

  1. Mystery filings using Grayscale’s name suggest the multi-billion dollar firm may be looking to expand the number of Trusts.
  2. As Thailand’s leading crypto exchange remains suspended, billionaire backed rival Upbit enters the scene.
  3. After a day of intensifying sell pressure, Bitcoin price dropped below $29,000 for the first time since January 5.
  4. Institutional investors have rallied around crypto this past month, with the AUM of crypto ETPs surging more than 90% as volumes tripled.

*Sources of charts: https://cryptowat.ch, https://pro.zebpay.com/trade/USDT-INR
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