05 February 2021 | ZebPay Trade-Desk
BTC has witnessed an upward trend this week, currently at $37,000 levels. ETH and other altcoins have followed suit. Let’s look at what we have in store for a trade set-up.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $37,200 reflecting a loss of 1.5% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
Bitcoin has seen an upward trend this week, gaining over 10% over the previous week. BTC continues to see strong inflows, and volumes have also seen a boost during the week, reflecting a positive overall sentiment.
As we mentioned in our earlier reports, post correction from its peak, Bitcoin took support at around $29,800 levels (horizontal line shown in the chart) and started consolidating.
It was evident from the chart that bulls were ready to take charge at these levels as it tested the support zone multiple times and gave the rally of almost 30% touching the resistance line of $38,085 levels. It made a high of $38,769 but it failed to close above the key resistance level. Hence, we conclude that for further upside move Bitcoin needs to close and sustain above mentioned resistance levels.
Institutional flows have continued to impress, hence the picture over the long term is fairly positive. Tactically $34,810 and $29,800 are acting as good support, and dips accumulation remains an attractive strategy.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $1,600 reflecting a loss of 2.8% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
ETH hit all time high and hence continues to benefit from good institutional flows, as well as good commitments. Volumes have also held up well. The second largest asset by market capital, is gaining more traction from investors, and the crypto community, probably why ETH has been witnessing a steady surge so far this year. As the DeFi ecosystem continues to expand, over the longer term the picture for ETH seems to be very positive.
As we have mentioned in our previous reports that ETH is continuously trading in an uptrend. ETH was facing stiff resistance at around $1,400 levels but this week we saw a sharp rally once the resistance was convincingly broken with good volumes. ETH made the all time high of $1,695. We have seen in the past few weeks that every time ETH has corrected from its highs the bulls take charge and see it as an opportunity to enter.
ETH may continue to see its bull run until and unless it breaks and trades below the key support levels of $1,377 and $1,265 will act as important support levels, and hence we continue to remain bullish on ETH, and believe that $1,700 is attainable.
Basic Attention Token (BAT) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, BAT is trading around $0.336 reflecting a gain of about 10% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
BAT has successfully exited the long bearish trend it had formed in the last month as the prices carried an upward momentum upto the price of $0.36.
As mentioned in our previous reports that BAT has been trading in a broad range from $ 0.1945 to $0.2887. Last week we saw that it has successfully given a breakout on the upside by breaking the long held resistance of $0.29 levels and made the high of $ 0.362.
We can also see that it has started making higher lows and higher highs. For BAT to continue the upward rally it has to trade and close above the resistance level of $0.37 and $0.44. We remain bullish on BAT, and $0.288 will act as a key support.
For BAT to further rally, it would have to break the crucial resistance level of $0.37, and needs to sustain above that.
USDT-INR Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, USDT-INR is trading around $74 reflecting a profit of about 2% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
The pair is operating with a 2.5% premium, compared to its traditional counterpart. The primary reason for this, the “Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, 2021″ that has been listed for “introduction, consideration and passing” in the current session of the Parliament. However, The Ministry of Finance clarified its position on cryptocurrency and the country’s digital currency in the Rajya Sabha early this week. The crypto industry remains positive and believes that the government is unlikely to impose an outright ban on cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin. News of this bill has created a lot of fear, uncertainty & doubt in the minds of the members of India’s crypto community. The USDT-INR pair has been largely range bound this week, between $71-$74. We can see USDT is taking support at $71.5 levels, we anticipate an upward movement once it breaks this resistance level of $74.85.
The pair has witnessed lows of $61 given the uncertainty pertaining in the 2021-22 budget session. However, since then, recovery has set in, and equilibrium in the pair seems to be returning. In addition, the recent string of US data is encouraging economists to revise up forecasts for GDP, coupled with a stimulus package to further push the recovery agenda. On the other hand, RBI’s recent comments suggest the Central Bank will continue their intervention in 2021 to build-up huge forex reserves ignoring rupee’s underperformance versus the regional currencies, which might result in lower premiums for sustained periods.
Though the ramifications of the bill that is currently being debated in Parliament remains ambiguous, we still believe that the USDT-INR will continue to see an upward trend and recover from its recent lows. Hence, in this light, we are bullish on the pair, as we expect inflows to get stronger over the first half of this month.
Weekly Trade Summary Sheet:
Weekly Price Analysis:
| USD ($) | 28 Jan 21 | 04 Feb 21 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $31,649.610 | $36,926.060 | 16.67% | $38,406.260 | $29,367.140 | $38,592.180 | $30,023.210 |
| ETH | $1,298.100 | $1,594.760 | 22.85% | $1,467.780 | $1,046.600 | $1,689.190 | $1,274.360 |
| BAT | $0.309 | $0.313 | 1.33% | $0.338 | $0.230 | $0.327 | $0.291 |
Weekly Volume Analysis:
| Cryptocurrency | 1w – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | 12.56% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | -0.30% |
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) | -31.99% |
Weekly Price Pointers:
| Resistance 2 | $40,425 | $1,800 | $0.4400 |
| Resistance 1 | $38,085 | $1,695 | $0.3700 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | BAT |
| Support 1 | $34,810 | $1,377 | $0.2880 |
| Support 2 | $29,800 | $1,265 | $0.2200 |
Market Updates:
- Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd has increased his bitcoin fair value estimate.
- The State Agency for Tax Administration of Spain published guidelines to reduce tax evasion for cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin.
- Cryptocurrency in India: Union Minister of State for Finance, Anurag Thakur, reiterated the government position on cryptocurrency announced in Budget speech 2018-19.
*Sources of charts: https://cryptowat.ch, https://pro.zebpay.com/trade/USDT-INR
Disclaimer : This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum etc.are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.
