03 December 2021 | ZebPay Trade-Desk
Bitcoin now faces stiff resistance in the range of $58,000, and then at $60,000. This comes after the asset fell significantly over the last week, from the new all-time high of C$69,000 it set last month. BTC buyers have been quite active during this correction, which came after the unfavourable $3bn options expiry that took place last Friday.
The asset continues to maintain a bullish stance, provided it doesn’t fall below the $53,000 mark. Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase as of now though and will be so until prices do not beat the $60,000 mark. Ethereum too has seen a rally in the past week, after it went up from $4,200 levels, crossing the $4,700 mark on Wednesday, a 15% jump week on week. This rise has fueled inflows into the asset, as many investors have been on the sidelines over the past couple of weeks.
We continue to maintain a bullish stance on ETH as long as it sustains and trades above its strong support level at $3,900. The overall outlook is mixed at this point in time, as both BTC and ETH are trading sideways. November saw an impressive rally in the first 2 weeks, post which the market corrected, and since then has been range-bound in a consolidatory phase. BTC dominance currently stands at 41.2%, which ETH is at 20.7%.
The market capitalization of the largest asset in the crypto space followed the same trail of volume and moved accordingly. BTC is reigning as the undisputed holder of market rank 1. ETH follows as it continues to see decent inflows. Finally, after months of holding a pessimistic outlook, investors seem bullish on the space. Between ETF approval, ETF launch and now new ATHs, the pace of news is frenetic, but all positive. The market feels firm based on client sentiment and derivative market positioning. Interestingly, this week’s rally seems to be led by the altcoins, as BTC struggles to get out of its consolidation phase.
The total cryptocurrency market cap jumped to $2.75T and currently stands at $2.6T. BTC is holding strong in a range, but pressure from the bears is high, and some consolidation at these levels is on the horizon. The asset now faces a stiff resistance at $60,000, which if it crosses, another rally may set in. BTC dominance currently stands at 41%.
ETH is up by approximately 6% over a 24hr period, and ETH dominance too has improved, currently close to 21%, as the second-largest asset currently has a market capitalization of $545 billion. Altcoins too have seen an impressive increase over the past week, most up between 4-9%.
This is typical of altcoins, as they tend to follow BTC’s rally, usually with a slight lag, but this time, the rally that has taken place has been pretty instant, signaling a positive sentiment in the marketplace. Namely, MATIC and BAT have impressed this month, with both surging by 50% on a month-on-month basis, and now seem to be consolidating and trading sideways.
Technical Analysis:
The next few days are likely to be quite interesting for the largest asset by market capitalization, Bitcoin (BTC), as it is hovering around the $57,000 mark, and the battle between the bears and bulls intensifies. Ethereum (ETH), too, is looking promising at current levels and faces strong resistance at $4,850 next. But, if it beats that, it might just witness another rally. The sentiment is fairly bullish even at these levels, which is probably why the market has been able to sustain for an extended period of time.
On-chain metrics haven’t been showing any rally-specific trends either. This means that the network is under-utilized, and the on-chain activity would have to catch up with price performance in order to sustain the market. Overall, the market has been largely in the green this month, and while a correction could be in the works, we can’t be sure when that will happen or if it will, as the macroeconomic outlook seems to be gaining positive reinforcement and investor sentiment is largely positive too.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $56,160 reflecting a gain of about 0.32% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
BTC is trading in a downtrend post making a peak of $69,000 and has corrected almost by 22.7% making the low of $53,327. Technically, on a daily time frame, the asset has taken support at the crucial level of $53,000 (Horizontal trendline) and shown signs of recovery. However, the prices are struggling to breach the psychological level of $60k and the 20 Day Moving average is acting as a strong resistance.
We continue to maintain a bullish stance as long as it sustains and trades above its strong support level at $53,000 and to witness a rally, BTC needs to break and close above the resistance of $60,000. A break below the support will negate the analysis.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $4,505 reflecting a gain of about 0.55% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
ETH has witnessed a sharp correction and the prices fell almost by 19.5% from their peak of $4,867 making the weekly low of $3,915. Technically, on a Daily time frame, the asset has given a breakout above the descending triangle pattern after taking support at the crucial level of $3,950. However, the bulls failed to manage the grip on the asset and were not able to push the prices above the all-time high. Currently, ETH is trading in a range from $4,350 to $4,700, and to further rally it needs to break and close above the all-time high of $4,864.
Basic Attention Token (BAT) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, BAT is trading around $1.376 reflecting a loss of about 3.5% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
BAT after consolidating gave a massive breakout above $1.15 and surged almost by 65% within four days and made the new all-time high of $1.92. Post this feat, the asset made a ‘Spinning Top’ and the prices corrected almost by 30% making the low of $1.355. Bat has strong support at $1.32 ( 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level). If the prices hold and sustain above the support then the bulls may resume the up move.
Monthly Trade Summary Sheet:
Monthly Price Analysis:
| October | November | Previous Month | Current Month | ||||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $61,318 | $57,005 | -7.03% | $66,930 | $43,320 | $68,790 | $53,570 |
| ETH | $4,288 | $4,631 | 8.01% | $4,456 | $2,979 | $4,892 | $3,934 |
| BAT | $0.99 | $1.46 | 47.36% | $1.45 | $0.68 | $1.92 | $0.93 |
Monthly Volume Analysis:
| Cryptocurrency | 1m – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | -6.03% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 2.92% |
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) | 89.85% |
Support and Resistance Levels:
| Resistance 2 | $69,000 | $5,295 | $1.920 |
| Resistance 1 | $60,000 | $4,865 | $1.700 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | BAT |
| Support 1 | $53,000 | $4,400 | $1.320 |
| Support 2 | $48,000 | $3,950 | $1.150 |
December Outlook:
The overall sentiment has been bullish this month, and it seems like this might stick. Markets were volatile, but given that, most of the month has been in the green. In the month of December, we expect our favorite asset BTC to see attractive volumes and growth, as the fundamental outlook is positive. Volumes have started to see a recovery this month, which is necessary for prices to hold. Along with BTC and ETH, the majority of other altcoins also witnessed a similar trend, appreciating through most of the month.
As Banks, FIs, Governments, and MNCs continue to adopt digital assets, coupled with the ever so increasing coverage this asset class has been witnessing among institutions and research papers, the macroeconomic outlook is strong. As mainstream, more credible fund managers and economists start investing and holding BTC as well as ETH, we expect others to follow suit, further instilling belief in the asset class, and pumping up volumes. With countries now starting to consider cryptos as legal tenders, the outlook is even more positive.
Lastly, we expect December to be a positive month and anticipate the upward trend to continue. Though volatility seems to be a given, fundamentally BTC and ETH, the largest assets by market cap, continue to hold a strong footing in the marketplace. Given that, we remain bullish on both BTC as well as ETH and feel positively towards altcoins, especially those operating in the DeFi ecosystem, along with BAT and MATIC which has piqued our interest significantly, after major fundamental developments have occurred this month across both these assets.
Market Updates:
- US based Fidelity Investment of Canada has launched a spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund which would allow and enable investors to trade real Bitcoin rather than the derivatives.
- China is now expanding its crackdown on crypto following into the metaverse and nonfungible token (NFT) as recently said by an executive at the People’s Bank of China.
- Nirmala Sitaram, Finance Minister of India spoke about cryptocurrency in the upper house of parliament (Rajya Sabha) that the government is checking the advertisement of digital currency and preparing guidelines to see what can be done to address concerns over misleading commercials promoting cryptocurrency.
- The European council has approved two digital asset proposals known as Market in Crypto Asset (MiCA) framework and the Digital Operational Resilience ACR (DORA) and discussion has begun on the initiatives before it goes for legislation.
- Britain’s crypto exchanges will be levied with a 2% tax which is likely to be passed on to investors, warned CryptoUK.
- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has a new Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) that aims at tackling the network’s gas fee problem.
Happy Trading with ZebPay!
References:
*Sources of charts: https://cryptowat.ch
Disclaimer:
This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum etc.are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.
