03 Sept 2021 | ZebPay Trade-Desk
Bitcoin, after months of facing stiff resistance in the range of $37,500-$42,500 at different points in time, broke free, and witnessed a significant rally, as it skyrocketed and breached the $50,000 mark this month. BTC buyers were quite active, as BTC broke the 50day moving average of $43,000 and shot upwards. The asset is trending towards the $52,000 mark, its next stiff resistance, and some profit booking is likely, and hence this might act as a strong resistance level for the asset now.
Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase as of now though and will be so until the price does not beat the $50,000 mark, the top-most point over the last 8-9 weeks. BTC, as always, has had a spillover effect on some altcoins too, as Solana, Cardano, and BNB have also witnessed significant double-digit percentage growth, clocking 50%, 20%, and 15% growth respectively over the past few days.
Ethereum too has seen an appreciation of about 30% this week, and as it hit the $3,750 mark, but has fallen a little since. This rally could fuel inflows into these assets, namely BTC and ETH, as many investors have been on the sidelines over the past couple of weeks. The overall outlook is now bullish, and this upside seen during the week, may very well act as the much-needed respite the market needed, and hence the next few days remain very crucial at this point.
Over the course of the month, crypto markets started with a downside as Bitcoin and Altcoins were riding the downward trend. But as the month progressed, markets showed some respite, and recovery seems to have begun, and markets have been largely in the green multiple consecutive trading sessions.
The market capitalization of the largest asset in the crypto space followed the same trail of volume and moved accordingly. It has swelled by about 15% in the last two weeks. Reigning as the undisputed holder of market rank 1. ETH has been on a spree and has crossed the $3,700 mark, as it continues to rally and approach the psychological resistance level of $4,000 next. BTC on the other hand has been consolidating just below the $50,000 mark.
Interestingly though, while BTC seems to be consolidating, several other altcoins have been witnessing a surge in prices. ETH appreciated significantly against BTC and currently is the most favoured asset in the space. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization shows a bullish pattern with constant higher lows and higher highs. This morning, the total market capitalization crossed the $2.2T mark, with BTC and ETH together accounting for roughly 68% of that, with a combined market capitalization of close to $1.5T. Volumes seem to be holding strong, and there is good momentum too., signaling that the market could potentially be setting itself up for another impressive rally.
Assets have seen a rally over the past few weeks, backed by good momentum and volumes, and favorable macroeconomic events, which might just give the assets the push they need to beat the stiff resistance levels they face, though that seems unlikely in the immediate term. However, we remain cautious, as the next few days of the week will remain crucial for BTC.
August Fundamental Snapshot at ZebPay:
The ZebPay trade desk also conducted research on broader, fundamental investment topics and our weekly technical reports this month. We conducted a market watch of leading assets earlier this week, and also covered all the new coins we launched in July,
Impact of the London Hard Fork
The upgrade will most certainly enhance the ETH blockchain, and will most certainly impact the way in which the asset is priced. While there are several technical developments taking place, what will be of keen interest to traders, and investors alike would be:
- The most attractive thing about ETH 2.0 is that TPS would be much higher than what it is currently and it would ultimately lead to less congestion and significantly reduce gas fees.
- Etheruem will become more efficient, leading to growth. Growth will reduce the volatility of the asset and the inflation surrounding it.
- After the upgrade miners wouldn’t receive the earlier amount they used to get, but a tip that the customer might give for them placing the transaction on the immediate block. This might lead them to migrate to other blockchain systems due to reduction in their earnings, and their incentive to mine might reduce.
- ETH will be burned after every transaction on the blockchain. In other words it would create a short term escalation of price, due to the supply crunch, and the lower availability of ETH across global exchanges.
To read our in-depth report on how the fork will impact ET, please click here.
Crypto ETF’s
Cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) theoretically operate like any other ETF. Although most ETFs track an index or a basket of assets, crypto ETFs track one or more digital tokens. Just as common stocks work where the price of the asset fluctuates throughout the day as investors buy and sell, crypto’s work the same way. A crypto ETF can track a single cryptocurrency or a basket of different tokens and currencies. There are many opinions on the market that allow you to use cryptocurrencies without the need for investors to manage digital assets themselves. However, these options are subservient to traditional ETFs in many ways. And with the help of a blockchain fund one can invest in companies closely related to the cryptocurrency market, thereby realizing indirect investment in space.
To learn more about how crypto ETF’s function, please click here.
Key Fundamental Developments in 2021
The most dominating asset, Bitcoin has risen by around 275% since last August. Last August the average price of Bitcoin was $11,652 while this year it’s around $39,458. The leap in the price can be attributed to a few things. Over the past few months, high prices and congestion in the network have become a growing concern. That is where Altcoins make a way for new crypto enthusiasts. With more than 5000 altcoin’s it’s hard to choose a few. Yet we have some digital currencies which have been making great strides this year.
To know more about the key fundamental developments of the year, please click here
Launch of DATA and PUSH on ZebPay
DATA (Streamr) is an open source decentralized crowdfunding platform for real-time data processing. Streamr Network is the core of this platform, allowing users and devices to share their data. ENPS is an Indian blockchain startup founded by Harsh Rajat and Risha Joshi in 2020, who envisioned the Ethereum protocol that would allow any dApp, service or smart contract to notify users through their wallet address. This applies to the Android and iOS section and can be delivered with platform diagnostics.
To know more about these tokens, please click here.
Weekly Technical Analysis:
The next few days are likely to be quite interesting for the largest asset by market capitalization, Bitcoin (BTC), as it crossed the $49,000 mark convincingly yesterday, and has held fort in the range of $48,500 or so since. Ethereum (ETH) , too, is looking promising at current levels, and faces a strong resistance at $4,000 next. But, if it beats that, it might just witness another rally. This week’s price action has in fact flipped the market sentiment to some degree. For the first time since the mid-May crash, we are witnessing volumes return gradually as investors are cautiously contributing to inflows positively. However, on-chain metrics haven’t been supporting the BTC rally. This means that the network is under-utilised, and the on-chain activity would have to catch up with price performance in order to sustain the market. It’s not just BTC and ETH that have been showing signs of respite. Solana, Cardano, DOT, and BNB too have seen a push this week, and are showing bullish patterns. Overall, this week has been a green one.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $49,050 reflecting a loss of about 1.3% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
BTC bears have been able to successfully keep BTC below the $50,000 mark over the past week or so now. The heavy selling in the US dollar spot market pushed BTC upwards, towards $51,000, but investors seems to have remained cautious, preventing the asset from beating the psychological resistance level of 50k. The JAckson Hole event that took place last week didn’t have a significant impact on the market, however, some key macroeconomic developments this week are scheduled, namely the private sector employment data, and Non-farm payroll data, which might impact the sentiments of investors, and hence the market.
Bitcoin witnessed a sharp rally from its recent bottom of $28,800 and surged almost by 75% making the high of $50,505. Post this move, the bulls have struggled to extend the gains and failed to take charge and break the resistance of $51,000 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level). Currently, BTC is consolidating and is trading sideways in range from $50,000 to $46,500 over the past two weeks. Once the breakout or close occurs above $51,000 with good volumes then we may expect the prices to further rally up to $57,175 or if it breaks the range on the lower side then the prices may drop to the next support level which is at $42,500.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $3780 reflecting a gain of about 0.5% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
ETH continues to see inflows from institutional investors, despite the consolidation phase that the asset has been experiencing the past few days. Ether has seen the largest inflow among institutional investors, with ETH-based products posting a weekly inflow of $17.2 million, as of yesterday. The asset has seen a significant rally his week, up 30% over the past 10 days. In addition, ETH has beat BTC in terms of the growth it has witnessed, and the ETH/BTC ratio shot up, making it the most favorable asset currently.
ETH, after witnessing a sharp rally from $1,720 up to $3,380, was consolidating and trading sideways in a range from $3,000 to $3,350 for the past three weeks. The asset finally gave a breakout on the upside as the bulls took charge and the prices surged up to $3,840. ETH can face resistance around $3,800 (78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level) and if the price holds and sustains above these levels then we can expect the asset to go up to $4,175.
Basic Attention Token (BAT) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, BAT is trading around $0.8514 reflecting a loss of about 0.38% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
Basic Attention Token (BAT) has been fairly range-bound this week trading between $0.78-$0.86. Volumes have supported too. BAT’s underlying asset is the Brave browser which has seen better mass adoption among both retailers and publishers over the past few months. This coupled with the fact that BAT is still relatively undervalued given its utility, acquiring the asset at these levels seems to look like a highly attractive proposition for long-term investors.
BAT rallied almost by 100% from $0.45 up to $0.90 and has been trading in an ‘Ascending Channel’ where the asset is trading between the upward sloping parallel lines. The upper line and the lower line of the channels depicts the resistance and support respectively. A breakout above an ascending channel can signal a continuation of the move higher, while a breakdown below an ascending channel can indicate a possible trend change.
Ripple (XRP) Technical Analysis and Chart:
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.2518 reflecting a gain of about 0.15% approximately over the period of 24-hours.
XRP is the native currency of Ripple Labs, a software company that made the cryptocurrency and distributed ledger technology alongside a range of payment protocols to streamline cross-border settlements for financial institutions. XRP price has bounced back from its July lows but some indicators are starting to suggest that the rally is due for a pullback. The pair’s gains appeared as a part of a prevailing bullish trend that started July 20 when it was trading for as low as $0.154 — a 134% upside retracement on the whole.On a week-to-date timeframe, the XRP/USD rates were up circa 54%.
XRP witnessed a massive rally and surged almost by 161% from $0.516 up to the recent top of $1.349. Post this move, the asset resisted around the crucial level of $1.4 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level) and corrected almost by 22%. XRP has a strong support around $1.04 and whenever the prices drop at this level, it rebounds as the bulls are trying to resume the up move. If the price breaks and sustains above the resistance of $1.4 then we can expect another rally and XRP can surge up to $1.65.
Monthly Trade Summary Sheet:
Monthly Price Analysis:
| July | August | Previous Month | Current Month | ||||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $40,008 | $47,167 | 17.89% | $40,816 | $29,361 | $50,482 | $37,458 |
| ETH | $2,380 | $3,434 | 44.27% | $2,428 | $1,722 | $3,837 | $2,449 |
| BAT | $0.594 | $0.816 | 37.30% | $0.647 | $0.458 | $0.902 | $0.626 |
| XRP | $0.748 | $1.19 | 59.09% | $0.752 | $0.518 | $1.35 | $0.70 |
Monthly Volume Analysis:
| Cryptocurrency | 1m – % Vol. Change (Global) |
| BitCoin (BTC) | 11.55% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 7.60% |
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) | 22.82% |
| Ripple (XRP) | 170.17% |
Support and Resistance Levels:
| Resistance 2 | $57,000 | $4,175 | $1.150 | $1.650 |
| Resistance 1 | $51,000 | $3,800 | $0.900 | $1.400 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | BAT | XRP |
| Support 1 | $46,500 | $3,350 | $0.800 | $1.040 |
| Support 2 | $42,500 | $2,950 | $0.700 | $0.850 |
Market Updates:
- SEC chairman Gary Gensler promoted cooperation between Europe and The United States in seeking to regulate decentralized financial technologies.
- BTC price action stays frustratingly dull as altcoins take the chance to put in a serious performance, led by Ether.
- The Big Four firms and Fortune 500 companies are working with a number of blockchain and crypto companies on ways to combat regulatory uncertainty.
- FTT price soared to a new all-time high after the FTX exchange added LedgerX to its ever-expanding list of acquisitions and partnerships.
September Outlook:
The overall sentiment has been bullish this month, but seems like it might stick. Markets were volatile, but given that, most of the month has been in the green. In the month of September, we expect our favorite asset BTC to see attractive volumes and growth, as, at these levels, accumulation is likely. Volumes have started to see a recovery, which is necessary for prices to hold. Along with BTC and ETH, the majority of other altcoins also witnessed a similar trend, as BNB and BAT both fell in the start, and then appreciated in the second half of the month.
As Banks, FIs, Governments, and MNCs continue to adopt digital assets, coupled with the ever so increasing coverage this asset class has been witnessing among institutions and research papers, the macroeconomic outlook is strong. As mainstream, more credible fund managers and economists start investing and holding BTC as well as ETH, we expect others to follow suit, further instilling belief in the asset class, and pumping up volumes. With countries now starting to consider cryptos as legal tenders, the outlook is even more positive.
Lastly, we expect September to be a positive month and anticipate the upward trend to continue. Though volatility seems to be a given, fundamentally BTC and ETH, the largest assets by market cap, continue to hold a strong footing in the marketplace. Given that, we remain bullish on both BTC as well as ETH and feel positively towards altcoins, especially those operating in the DeFi ecosystem, and also BNB the native token of Binance Exchange.
Conclusion:
This concludes our ZebPay August Monthly Analysis report. The report aims to provide its readers with some insight into what the month has been like for us at ZebPay, and dive into some outcomes as a future approach on what we expect to happen next. The trade-desk has put together a snapshot for our investors to understand both the fundamental and technical analysis for better trading and investment decisions, coupled with some market updates and key events that readers can refer to to get a glimpse of the key developments taking place in the crypto world and how this is shaping markets.
Happy Trading with ZebPay!
References:
*Sources of charts: https://cryptowat.ch
Disclaimer:
This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum etc.are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.
