Weekly Trade Report: The Big Bitcoin Rally


13 November 2020 | ZebPay Trade-Desk

The cryptocurrency rally has continued this week with Bitcoin trading at levels last seen only in 2018. The situation is very positive and markets still trade above the key resistance they breached last month especially with Bitcoin above $16,000. Let’s look at what we have in store for a trade set-up.

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Chart:

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $16,310 reflecting a profit of 4.9% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

As we see in the chart above, after successfully breaching $12,000 resistance there was no stopping BTC. We think this a start of a long term Bull run BTC. Interestingly, the price has breached the bullish channel from the upside. Next resistance is near $17,300 levels.

The good news is unlike last euphoric rally in 2017 this seems to be driven by participants having a longer horizon on their minds, especially institutional participation. On the technical front RSI becomes most important at these levels, which shows overbought levels at this point. We feel this should correct in near term to neutral levels, shaking off weaker participants. 

We still remain bullish on BTC after price breaching $16,000 levels. Though since RSI is flashing overbought levels, dollar cost averaging with entering the dips seems path forward, till the time RSI shows neutral level.

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Chart:

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $461 reflecting a profit of 1.39% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

As we see the chart, our bullish call at last week’s price levels worked well. ETH Currently trades above the support levels with next resistance at $480 levels.

MACD is still positive with a signal line below the MACD line, despite strong rally of last week RSI is below overbought levels.  Price has entered a bullish channel closed, forming higher highs and lows. This is supportive of price in the near term. Price trades above 9,21 and 200 day EMA.  Positive correlation with BTC will  help if BTC continues it’s euphoric rally in the near term.

We continue to stay bullish on ETH riding till $480 levels, yet the analysis will be negated if price falls below $420 levels convincingly.

Basic Attention Token (BAT) Technical Analysis and Chart:

At the time of writing, BAT is trading around $0.19630 reflecting a loss of about 3.6% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

After being stuck in the bearish channel as we showed in our last report prices have closed outside the bearish channel. Like last week price did try to break out of the bearish channel last month with some positive momentum but resistance of $0.23 seemed too much. 

MACD is still negative yet histogram has turned positive, despite breaking out of bearish channel  inability to break cycles of forming lower highs remains concerning in the near term. RSI after flashing oversold levels last week is neutral this week. Hence, we continue to stay cautiously bearish on BAT, with price entry so long as price is unable to breach previous high of $0.21

Analysis will be negated if price forms high highs on a daily chart.

Ripple (XRP) Technical Analysis and Chart: 

At the time of writing, XRP  is  trading around $0.255 reflecting a loss  of about 0.86% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

As shown in the chart above XRP has been range bound trading between $0.22 and $0.26. It did develop an uptrend with formation of higher lows last month. But last week price breached that from below,  continues to trade below that trend. That too acts as resistance in the near term.

On the technical indicator side MACD is close to 0 with RSI at neutral. With setup we lean on the bearish side on XRP with both channel and trend acting as resistance in the near term, we see a good chance of price reversing to $0.235 levels.

Analysis will be negated if price breaches trend and support convincingly. 

USDT-INR Technical Analysis and Chart: 

At the time of writing, USDT-INR  is  trading around 75.95 reflecting a profit of about 0.22% approximately over the period of 24-hours.

USDT-INR makes up for an interesting pair as USDT is a stable coin, hence the pair has the property of both forex and crypto. 

On the technical front, few indicators have flipped from last week. MACD has turned positive, RSI is neutral and ADX is not confirming the trend. But as we point out in our previous reports it’s important to see what’s happening with premium, the pair had with regards to USD-INR.

Last week premium shrunk a bit from 2.88% to currently just below 2%. We believe USDT being a stable coin is an easy way to gain exposure to USD which saw some outflows on the PFizer’s vaccine news. President Trump is still mounting legal pressure which at this point seem unlikely affecting the presidential race. With that said we think there is considerable time between when PFizer’s vaccine gets approval and is available, as such such amount of premium shrinkage seems too early to us.

With that said in the near term we tilt on the bullish side on pair with technicals turning positive, Covid cases are rising across the USA and Europe and a long winter ahead of the actual vaccination may spoil the party for INR wrt to USD and may lead to premium expansion. 

Weekly Trade Summary Sheet: 

Weekly Price Analysis:

USD ($)04 Nov 2011 Nov 20Previous WeekCurrent Week
CloseClose% ChangeHighLowHighLow

Weekly Volume Analysis:

Cryptocurrency1w – % Vol. Change (Global)
BitCoin (BTC)12.15%
Ethereum (ETH)14.39%
Basic Attention Token (BAT)6.80%
Ripple (XRP)5.73%
Binance Coin (BNB)-0.01%

Weekly Price Pointers:

Resistance 2$17,200$512$0.2230$0.2840$33.00$0.020
Resistance 1$16,500$473$0.2060$0.2660$31.50$0.017
Support 1$15,600$446$0.1950$0.2510$26.90$0.012
Support 2$14,800$420$0.1760$0.2450$25.30$0.010

Market Updates:

  1. Unexpected Ethereum Chain Split Leads to Service Outages.
  2. Pro-Crypto Group Attempts To Get Bitcoin Added As A Swiss Reserve Currency.
  3. A U.S.-based mining firm has inked agreements with foreign investors to issue $13.9 million in shares in exchange for Bitcoin miners pushing 1 EH/s in hash power.
  4. The launch of a new ‘censored’ mining pool has some Bitcoiners worried its a harbinger of things to come.
  5. China Construction Bank (CCB) has tapped Labuan-based digital asset exchange Fusang for the issuance of $3 billion worth of debt securities over a blockchain.
  6. The stablecoin dai (DAI) broke a market capitalization of $1 billion.

*Sources of charts: https://cryptowat.ch, pro.zebpay.com/trade/USDT-INR

Disclaimer : This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum etc.are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.

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